📈 Forward Indicators Template
May 3, 2026 · View on GitHub
Template Purpose: Define observable leading indicators that signal trajectory changes for European Parliament dynamics, enabling early warning and scenario validation.
Methodology: electoral-domain-methodology.md §Part 6
Min Lines: 180
🕐 Multi-Horizon Decay Table
Canonical decay numbers live in forward-projection-methodology.md §3. The table below shows which indicator types remain predictively useful at each horizon — it does NOT replicate WEP probability values. Always read forward-projection-methodology.md §3 as the authoritative source for the numbers themselves.
Each indicator is tagged with the horizons at which it retains meaningful predictive signal (✅ active) vs. the horizons where it has decayed beyond utility (⬜ decayed).
## Multi-Horizon Decay Table
> WEP decay values are sourced from: [forward-projection-methodology.md §3](../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table).
> Do NOT duplicate or override those numbers here.
| Indicator Type | Example | T+7d | T+30d | T+90d | T+12m | T+term-end | T+EP-election |
|---|---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| **Procedural / calendar** | Committee vote date, rapporteur deadline, trilogue round | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
| **Coalition cohesion** | EPP/S&D alignment rate on roll-call votes | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
| **Legislative pipeline** | Procedure stage, report adoption, trilogue conclusion | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
| **Policy-position shift** | MEP speech-content pivot, amendment filing pattern | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
| **National-government change** | Election results, coalition formation in MS | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| **Macro-economic signal** | IMF WEO growth revision, fiscal-deficit threshold | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| **EP-group composition drift** | Defection rate, new-member absorption pace | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| **Presidential/Commission cycle** | Commission WP priorities, DG-level reshuffles | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| **Electoral/polling signal** | Eurobarometer party-preference trend, national polling | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| **Spitzenkandidaten declared** | Lead-candidate announcement, party-congress endorsement | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| **Seat-projection model** | EP seat arithmetic based on national polls | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ |
| **Treaty-revision / IGC signal** | IGC announcement, Art. 48 TEU trigger | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ |
**Legend:** ✅ active (indicator retains predictive signal) | ⬜ decayed (signal below useful threshold at this horizon)
Per-indicator horizon tagging
When populating Section 3 (Indicator Detail Cards), tag every indicator with its active horizons using the **Horizons:** field (see card template in §3). This allows monitoring plans to silently retire indicators at their decay horizon rather than reporting stale signals.
Horizon tag examples:
rapporteur-deadline→ horizons:7d / 30dEPP-S&D alignment rate→ horizons:7d / 30d / 90dSpitzenkandidaten declared candidates→ horizons:12m / term-end / EP-electionEurobarometer party-preference trend→ horizons:12m / term-end / EP-electionNational-government election result→ horizons:30d / 90d / 12m / term-end / EP-election
📋 Header Block
# Forward Indicators: {TOPIC / SCENARIO SET}
**Classification:** PUBLIC | SENSITIVE | RESTRICTED
**Date:** {ISO date}
**Monitoring Period:** {Start date} to {End date}
**Linked Scenarios:** {Reference to scenario-forecast.md}
**Indicator Count:** {N}
---
🎯 Section 1 — Indicator Overview
Required: Summary of what indicators are tracking and why.
## Indicator Purpose
**Monitoring Objective:** {What these indicators are designed to detect}
**Scenario Linkage:** These indicators validate/invalidate scenarios defined in:
- [scenario-forecast.md](./scenario-forecast.md) — Scenarios {S1, S2, S3, ...}
**Early Warning Target:** Detect trajectory changes {N days/weeks} before they manifest in observable outcomes.
📊 Section 2 — Indicator Master Table
Required: ≥10 indicators with all 8 structure fields.
## Indicator Inventory
| ID | Category | Indicator | Baseline | Threshold | Frequency | Source | Linked Scenario |
|----|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|-----------|--------|-----------------|
| FI-001 | Political | {Description} | {Current value} | {Trigger value} | Daily/Weekly/Monthly | {EP MCP tool} | S{N} |
| FI-002 | Political | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-003 | Institutional | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-004 | Institutional | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-005 | Policy | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-006 | Policy | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-007 | Electoral | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-008 | External | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-009 | Crisis | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
| FI-010 | Crisis | {Description} | {Value} | {Trigger} | {Freq} | {Source} | S{N} |
🔍 Section 3 — Indicator Detail Cards
Required: Expanded analysis for each indicator.
Indicator Card Template
### FI-{NNN}: {Indicator Name}
**Category:** Political | Institutional | Policy | Electoral | External | Crisis
**Horizons:** {comma-separated list from: 7d / 30d / 90d / 12m / term-end / EP-election}
*(See Multi-Horizon Decay Table above for decay rules; canonical WEP bands per horizon in [forward-projection-methodology.md §3](../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table))*
**Description:** {What this indicator measures and why it matters}
**Current State:**
- **Value:** {Current measurement}
- **Trend:** ↑ Rising | ↓ Falling | → Stable
- **Last Updated:** {ISO date}
**Thresholds:**
| Level | Value | Interpretation |
|-------|-------|----------------|
| 🟢 Normal | {range} | Business as usual |
| 🟡 Watch | {range} | Elevated attention warranted |
| 🟠 Warning | {range} | Active monitoring required |
| 🔴 Alert | {value} | Scenario reassessment triggered |
**Monitoring Method:**
- **EP MCP Tool:** `{tool_name}` with parameters `{params}`
- **Frequency:** {Daily/Weekly/Monthly}
- **Automation:** {Manual / Automated via workflow}
**Scenario Linkage:**
| Scenario | Indicator Role |
|----------|---------------|
| S{N} — {Name} | {Confirms / Disconfirms / Early warning for} |
**Historical Context:**
{1-2 sentences on what this indicator has shown in past situations}
📈 Section 4 — Indicator Dashboard Mermaid
Required: Visual status overview of all indicators.
%%{init: {"theme":"dark","themeVariables":{"primaryColor":"#1565C0","primaryTextColor":"#ffffff"}}}%%
graph TB
classDef green fill:#4CAF50,stroke:#1B5E20,color:#FFFFFF
classDef yellow fill:#FFC107,stroke:#F57F17,color:#3E2723
classDef orange fill:#FF9800,stroke:#E65100,color:#FFFFFF
classDef red fill:#D32F2F,stroke:#B71C1C,color:#FFFFFF
subgraph "Political Indicators"
FI001["FI-001 EPP-S&D Alignment<br/>78% → threshold 65%<br/>🟢 NORMAL"]:::green
FI002["FI-002 ECR-EPP Cooperation<br/>42% → threshold 55%<br/>🟡 WATCH"]:::yellow
end
subgraph "Institutional Indicators"
FI003["FI-003 Commission Confidence<br/>Stable<br/>🟢 NORMAL"]:::green
FI004["FI-004 EP-Council Friction<br/>Elevated<br/>🟠 WARNING"]:::orange
end
subgraph "Crisis Indicators"
FI009["FI-009 Censure Mentions<br/>2/mo → threshold 5/mo<br/>🟢 NORMAL"]:::green
FI010["FI-010 Group Defections<br/>3 MEPs<br/>🟡 WATCH"]:::yellow
end
🎛️ Section 5 — Indicator Categories
Required: Grouped analysis by indicator category.
## Category Analysis
### Political Indicators (Coalition Dynamics)
**Purpose:** Monitor political group cohesion and cross-party cooperation patterns.
| ID | Indicator | Status | Trend |
|----|-----------|--------|-------|
| FI-001 | {Name} | 🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴 | ↑/↓/→ |
| FI-002 | {Name} | {Status} | {Trend} |
**Category Assessment:** {Overall assessment of political indicator set}
---
### Institutional Indicators (EP-Commission-Council)
**Purpose:** Monitor interinstitutional relations and legislative process health.
| ID | Indicator | Status | Trend |
|----|-----------|--------|-------|
| FI-003 | {Name} | 🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴 | ↑/↓/→ |
| FI-004 | {Name} | {Status} | {Trend} |
**Category Assessment:** {Overall assessment}
---
### Crisis Indicators (Early Warning)
**Purpose:** Detect emerging political crises before they manifest fully.
| ID | Indicator | Status | Trend |
|----|-----------|--------|-------|
| FI-009 | {Name} | 🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴 | ↑/↓/→ |
| FI-010 | {Name} | {Status} | {Trend} |
**Category Assessment:** {Overall assessment}
🔗 Section 6 — Scenario Linkage Matrix
Required: Map indicators to scenarios.
## Scenario-Indicator Matrix
| Indicator | S1: Baseline | S2: Upside | S3: Downside | S4: Wildcard |
|-----------|:------------:|:----------:|:------------:|:------------:|
| FI-001 | → | ↑ | ↓ | ↓↓ |
| FI-002 | → | ↓ | ↑ | ↑↑ |
| FI-003 | → | ↑ | ↓ | ↓↓ |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
**Legend:** → Stable | ↑ Increase supports scenario | ↓ Decrease supports scenario | ↑↑/↓↓ Strong signal
⚠️ Section 7 — Alert Protocol
Required: Define response to indicator threshold breaches.
## Alert Response Protocol
### Level Definitions
| Level | Meaning | Response |
|-------|---------|----------|
| 🟢 Normal | Within expected range | Continue routine monitoring |
| 🟡 Watch | Approaching threshold | Increase monitoring frequency |
| 🟠 Warning | Threshold breached | Reassess affected scenarios |
| 🔴 Alert | Critical threshold breached | Trigger scenario rewrite |
### Escalation Triggers
| Condition | Action |
|-----------|--------|
| Any 🔴 Alert | Immediate scenario reassessment |
| ≥3 indicators at 🟠 Warning | Joint assessment required |
| Trend reversal in ≥5 indicators | Baseline reassessment |
📝 Section 8 — Data Sources
Required: EP MCP tools and external sources for indicator data.
## Data Sources
### EP MCP Tools
| Tool | Indicators Fed | Frequency |
|------|---------------|-----------|
| `analyze_coalition_dynamics` | FI-001, FI-002 | Weekly |
| `detect_voting_anomalies` | FI-010 | Weekly |
| `track_mep_attendance` | FI-007 | Monthly |
| `get_speeches` | FI-009 | Weekly |
| `early_warning_system` | FI-009, FI-010 | Daily |
### External Sources
| Source | Indicators Fed | Admiralty Grade |
|--------|---------------|-----------------|
| Eurobarometer | FI-007 | A2 |
| National polling | FI-007 | B2 |
| Brussels press | FI-008 | C2 |
✅ Quality Checklist
- ≥10 indicators defined
- Each indicator has all 8 structure fields (including required
**Horizons:**tag) - Multi-Horizon Decay Table present in §Multi-Horizon Decay Table
- Every indicator has the
**Horizons:**field populated with its active horizons (7d / 30d / 90d / 12m / term-end / EP-election) - Indicator categories balanced across Political/Institutional/Policy/Electoral/External/Crisis
- Dashboard Mermaid shows all indicators with status
- Scenario linkage explicit for each indicator
- Alert protocol defined with escalation triggers
- EP MCP tool mapping complete
- Historical context provided for key indicators
- Thresholds evidence-based, not arbitrary
- WEP bands referenced from
forward-projection-methodology.md §3— NOT duplicated here
🔗 Cross-References
../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md §3— canonical WEP decay table and horizon lattice (single source of truth)scenario-forecast.md §0— long-horizon mode requirements; EP-election branches that this indicator set must support../methodologies/electoral-domain-methodology.md §Part 6— full methodology for this artifact
Template version 1.1 — EU Parliament Monitor Forward Indicators