💹 Economic Context Template
May 14, 2026 · View on GitHub
⚠️ IMF-FALLBACK NOTICE: This template is used when
manifest.dataMode = "degraded-imf". The IMF SDMX 3.0 REST API is unreachable or returned an Admiralty F6 (failed / unreachable) response. Economic context is derived from a prior-run IMF cache or from training-data WEO knowledge-base estimates with mandatory caveats.
📌 Template Instructions: Copy to
analysis/daily/{date}/{article-type}-run{N}/intelligence/economic-context.md. Setmanifest.dataMode = "degraded-imf". Fill the §IMF-Fallback Provenance section first. For every numeric claim, use [KB-ESTIMATE] prefix when using knowledge-base figures and cite the training-data vintage explicitly (e.g. "WEO Oct 2025 training vintage"). See methodologies/per-artifact-methodologies.md §economic-context.
⚠️ IMF-Fallback Provenance
🔴 MANDATORY — complete before any analysis section.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Data mode | degraded-imf |
| IMF SDMX status | Describe the failure: "F6 — API unreachable" / "timeout" / "SDMX 3.0 gateway error" |
| IMF Source | cache (if prior-run cache available) OR knowledge-base-estimate (if no cache) |
| Cache path | Path to cached IMF JSON under data/cache/imf/ (or "none available") |
| Cache vintage | Date of the cached data (e.g. "WEO Apr 2026 cached YYYY-MM-DD") OR "N/A" |
| KB-estimate vintage | When using knowledge base: "WEO Oct 2025 training vintage" (most recent WEO in training data) |
| Admiralty grade | A2 (for verified cached data) OR B3 (for training-data knowledge-base estimate) |
| Confidence cap | 🟡 MEDIUM for knowledge-base estimates; 🟢 HIGH only for verified cache |
| Data-availability-assessment ref | Path to the Stage A artifact: data-availability-assessment.md |
📋 Document Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Report ID | EC-FB-YYYY-MM-DD-runNN |
| Analysis Period | Start date to end date |
| Primary Data Source | IMF (vintage: [specify — e.g. WEO-Oct-2025 KB-estimate OR WEO-Apr-2026 cached]) |
| IMF Source | cache OR knowledge-base-estimate |
| Secondary (non-economic) | World Bank non-economic cross-refs (if available) OR "None" |
| IMF Indicators Cited | Count — note whether cache or KB-estimate |
| Forecast Horizon | current / t+1 / t+3 / t+5 |
| Triangulation Performed | Yes (Eurostat / ECB SDW cross-check if available) / No |
| Confidence | 🟡 MEDIUM (fallback mode — KB-estimate or stale cache) |
1️⃣ IMF-Fallback Indicator Table
All figures below MUST carry the [KB-ESTIMATE] prefix when sourced from training-data knowledge base, OR a cache-path citation when sourced from data/cache/imf/.
| EP Policy Topic | IMF Indicator | Database | KB-Estimate / Cache value | Vintage | Admiralty | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy topic 1 | [SDMX code + name] | WEO/FM/IFS | [KB-ESTIMATE] value% OR cache-value% | WEO Oct 2025 training vintage OR cache date | B3 OR A2 | 🟡 MEDIUM |
| Policy topic 2 | [SDMX code + name] | WEO/FM/IFS | [KB-ESTIMATE] value% | Vintage | B3 | 🟡 MEDIUM |
| Policy topic 3 | [SDMX code + name] | WEO/FM/IFS | [KB-ESTIMATE] value% | Vintage | B3 | 🟡 MEDIUM |
Fallback rationale:
State why IMF live data is unavailable (F6 error, timeout, SDMX 3.0 gateway issue). Cite the data-availability-assessment.md entry for IMF. Explain which indicators you would have used if the API were live, and how the KB-estimate differs from the expected live vintage.
2️⃣ EU-27 Headline Indicators (Fallback)
Primary indicator: State indicator name, e.g. "GDP growth rate (annual %)"
%%{init: {"theme":"dark","themeVariables":{"primaryColor":"#1565C0","primaryTextColor":"#ffffff","primaryBorderColor":"#0A3F7F","lineColor":"#90CAF9","secondaryColor":"#2E7D32","secondaryTextColor":"#ffffff","tertiaryColor":"#FF9800","tertiaryTextColor":"#000000","mainBkg":"#1565C0","secondBkg":"#2E7D32","tertiaryBkg":"#FF9800","noteBkgColor":"#FFC107","noteTextColor":"#000000","errorBkgColor":"#D32F2F","fontFamily":"Inter, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"}}}%%
xychart-beta
title "EU-27 [INDICATOR NAME] — 5-Year Trend [KB-ESTIMATE or CACHE]"
x-axis [2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024]
y-axis "[UNIT]" 0 --> 10
line [0, 0, 0, 0, 0]
⚠️ Chart data above is [KB-ESTIMATE] from WEO training vintage — replace with actual values when IMF API is available.
| Indicator | Code | [KB-ESTIMATE] Latest | EU-27 Avg | Delta vs. Avg | Trend | Admiralty | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator 1 | SDMX code | [KB-ESTIMATE] value | [KB-ESTIMATE] avg | ±value | ↑/→/↓ | B3 | 🟡 MEDIUM |
| Indicator 2 | SDMX code | [KB-ESTIMATE] value | [KB-ESTIMATE] avg | ±value | ↑/→/↓ | B3 | 🟡 MEDIUM |
| Indicator 3 | SDMX code | [KB-ESTIMATE] value | [KB-ESTIMATE] avg | ±value | ↑/→/↓ | B3 | 🟡 MEDIUM |
Headline narrative:
Interpret headline indicators in ≥100 words. Flag every numeric figure with [KB-ESTIMATE] and its vintage. State explicitly: "These figures are training-data estimates from [WEO vintage] and may differ from the IMF's current published values. When the IMF API becomes available, this section must be refreshed with live data." Connect indicators to EP legislative priorities.
3️⃣ Affected Member-State Focus (Fallback)
Member states most exposed to the period's dominant policy:
All figures below are [KB-ESTIMATE] unless sourced from a verified IMF cache file.
Member State 1: [ISO code + name]
| Indicator | [KB-ESTIMATE] Value | EU-27 Avg | Delta | Exposure Level | Admiralty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator 1 | [KB-ESTIMATE] value | [KB-ESTIMATE] avg | ±value | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | B3 |
| Indicator 2 | [KB-ESTIMATE] value | [KB-ESTIMATE] avg | ±value | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | B3 |
Exposure narrative: ≥80 words explaining this member state's exposure. Include explicit [KB-ESTIMATE] acknowledgement and the WEO vintage used.
Member State 2: [ISO code + name]
(repeat structure)
Member State 3: [ISO code + name]
(repeat structure)
4️⃣ Forward Outlook (Fallback)
IMF WEO projections (+5 years) — [KB-ESTIMATE from WEO training vintage]:
⚠️ All projection values below are [KB-ESTIMATE] from training-data WEO. They carry Admiralty B3 and 🟡 MEDIUM confidence. Do NOT use these as authoritative IMF projections.
| Indicator | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Trajectory | Horizon confidence | Admiralty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator 1 | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | ↑/→/↓ | 🟡 t+1/t+2 | B3 |
| Indicator 2 | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | [KB-ESTIMATE]% | ↑/→/↓ | 🟡 | B3 |
Projection narrative:
≥100 words interpreting forward projections. MUST include:
- Explicit [KB-ESTIMATE] acknowledgement with WEO vintage
- Statement: "IMF live projections unavailable this run — figures sourced from [WEO Oct 2025] training-data knowledge base"
- Optimism-bias acknowledgement for t+3+ horizons (typical MAE 1.8–2.4 pp for GDP at t+3; 4–6 pp for debt/GDP at t+3)
- What changes when live IMF data is available
Forecast marker: Each forecast number is within 30 words of "forecast" / "projection" / "KB-ESTIMATE" — validator regex-enforced.
5️⃣ Analytical Bridge to Political Reading
How macro data shapes political assessment:
≥150 words connecting economic indicators to EP political dynamics. Each economic claim must carry [KB-ESTIMATE] prefix and WEO vintage. Example structure:
- "[KB-ESTIMATE] Rising unemployment in Southern member states (ES, IT, GR) — WEO Oct 2025 vintage — increases pressure on S&D to prioritize social policy..."
- "Live IMF data would sharpen or revise this reading when the API resumes"
Cite specific indicators and explain the political mechanism even under fallback mode.
6️⃣ SEO / Editorial Evidence Bridge
| Search-intent term | Evidence source | Safe use in title? | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Committee acronym / policy file | EP artifact + [KB-ESTIMATE] IMF code | ✅ with [KB-ESTIMATE] caveat | Explain why term accurately reflects evidence |
| Affected stakeholder | EP artifact | ✅ | Explain |
| Procedure / vote reference | EP artifact | ✅ | Explain |
Editorial bridge paragraph: ≥80 words. Must include: one [KB-ESTIMATE] IMF vintage, one SDMX code, one EP policy topic, one named stakeholder impact, and the explicit caveat that IMF figures are training-data estimates subject to revision when live data is available.
7️⃣ Data-Source Bridge (Fallback)
Status:
| Source | Available? | Records Retrieved | Used in This Run? | Role | Admiralty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF SDMX REST (primary economic) | ❌ (F6 / timeout) | 0 | ✅ (cache fallback) OR ❌ | Primary (cache or KB-estimate) | A2 (cache) / B3 (KB-estimate) |
| Prior-run IMF cache (data/cache/imf/) | ✅/❌ | Cite count | ✅/❌ | Fallback if available | A2 |
| World Bank MCP (non-economic) | ✅/❌ | Cite count | ✅/❌ | Additive — non-economic only | — |
Cross-source triangulation (where possible under fallback):
| Indicator | IMF value (KB-estimate) | Cross-source | Cross-source value | Delta (pp) | Decision | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator (if Tier-1) | [KB-ESTIMATE] value | Eurostat / ECB SDW (if available) | Value | ±pp | consistent / material-delta | ≥30 words when material delta |
Bridge narrative:
Explain the fallback chain: (1) Attempted IMF SDMX REST — result: F6/timeout. (2) Checked data/cache/imf/ — found or not found. (3) Used [KB-estimate from WEO Oct 2025 training vintage] for remaining indicators. State: "All [KB-ESTIMATE] values must be replaced with live IMF data in the next run." If WB non-economic data is included, explain which non-economic domain.
8️⃣ Confidence Assessment (Fallback)
Overall confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM (IMF API unavailable; knowledge-base estimates only)
Confidence by data source:
| Source | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| IMF (KB-estimate) | 🟡 MEDIUM | Training-data WEO [vintage]; API unavailable; Admiralty B3 |
| IMF (cache, if used) | 🟢 HIGH | Verified cached data from [cache date]; Admiralty A2 |
| World Bank (non-economic) | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | State vintage, completeness, relevance |
| Member-state data | 🟡 MEDIUM | Inferred from KB-estimate |
🚫 Anti-Patterns — Fallback Mode Failures
| Anti-pattern | Why it fails | Correct approach |
|---|---|---|
IMF Source: knowledge-only in committed artifact | Stage-C validator rejects unconditionally | Use knowledge-base-estimate with [KB-ESTIMATE] prefix on every claim |
| Numeric figure without [KB-ESTIMATE] prefix | Passes off estimate as live data | Every KB-estimate value gets [KB-ESTIMATE] prefix |
| Missing WEO vintage on [KB-ESTIMATE] claims | Cannot assess staleness | Always cite "WEO [month] [year] training vintage" |
| Claiming 🟢 HIGH confidence on KB-estimate | Misleads on data quality | 🟡 MEDIUM for KB-estimates; 🟢 HIGH only for verified cache |
| Admitting knowledge-only without vintage | Reviewer cannot assess | "WEO Oct 2025 training vintage" is the minimum required form |
| Not refreshing when live data available | Stale fallback ships permanently | Add a "refresh required" note in §7 Bridge Narrative |
| Triangulation row absent for Tier-1 Indicators | High-stakes claim unverified | Attempt Eurostat / ECB SDW cross-check even in fallback mode |
🎯 EP MCP Tool Inputs (Fallback Mode)
| Source | Domain | Tool / dataflow | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMF SDMX REST | Economic / fiscal / monetary | imf-fetch-data WEO / FM / IFS | ❌ F6 / unreachable |
| Prior-run IMF cache | Economic (stale) | data/cache/imf/*.json | ✅/❌ |
| WB MCP (non-economic) | Health, education, social, environment | worldbank-mcp/get-*-data | ✅/❌ |
| Eurostat (cross-source) | EU-27 official statistics | manual; cite as A2 | ✅/❌ |
| ECB SDW (monetary) | Policy rate, M3, REER | manual; cite as A1 | ✅/❌ |
🔗 Controlling Methodology Cross-References
../../methodologies/imf-indicator-mapping.md— mandatory for economic indicators../../methodologies/worldbank-indicator-mapping.md— non-economic cross-refs only../economic-context.md— full-data template; use when IMF API resumes../data-availability-assessment.md— Stage A artifact that setsdataMode; always read before writing this artifact../../methodologies/reference-quality-thresholds.json—degradedFloorFactor: 0.85applies to all article-type floors
✅ Stage-C Completeness Signals (Fallback Mode)
scripts/validate-analysis-completeness.js checks for this artifact when manifest.dataMode = "degraded-imf":
| Check | Threshold | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Line floor | 0.85 × per article-type base floor (breaking: 157) | reference-quality-thresholds.json degradedFloorFactor |
| IMF-Fallback Provenance section present | §"IMF-Fallback Provenance" H2 | structural contract |
IMF Source field | cache or knowledge-base-estimate (validator rejects knowledge-only) | Stage-C IMF-source check |
| [KB-ESTIMATE] prefix | ≥3 occurrences in §§2–6 when IMF Source = knowledge-base-estimate | template requirement |
| WEO vintage cited | ≥1 occurrence of "WEO [month] [year]" or "training vintage" | evidence requirement |
| Mermaid block | ≥1 | visual contract |
| Confidence assessment | §8 present with 🟡 MEDIUM for KB-estimates | quality signal |
Document Control: analysis/templates/intelligence/economic-context.fallback.md · Template v1.0 · Variant: degraded-imf · Base: economic-context.md · Full-data base floor (breaking): 185 · Degraded floor (breaking): 157 (= floor(185 × 0.85)) · degradedFloorFactor: 0.85 · See ../../methodologies/reference-quality-thresholds.json for per-article-type computed floors.