ext

May 21, 2026 · View on GitHub

Bounded-context module. Loaded by news-election-cycle.md and any future cycle-aware workflow. Active only when $ARTICLE_DATE is within ± 30 days of a Swedish election anchor (next is 2026-09-13). Outside the window this module is a no-op — its checks short-circuit and emit a single line: cycle-rollover: window inactive (T-NN days).

The next Swedish general election is 2026-09-13. This module encodes the precise file-rename + content-carry-forward + PIR-archival procedure that converts an in-flight election-cycle/current/ artifact set into the election-cycle/next/ baseline once the registry's electionCycleAnchor flips. The same procedure repeats for the 2030-09-08 anchor and for every subsequent quadrennial anchor, parameterised by analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles.

1 — Activation predicate

ELECTION_DATE=$(jq -r '.electionCycles.next.start' analysis/article-types.json)
TODAY="$ARTICLE_DATE"
DAYS_DELTA=$(( ($(date -d "$TODAY" +%s) - $(date -d "$ELECTION_DATE" +%s)) / 86400 ))
if [ "${DAYS_DELTA#-}" -gt 30 ]; then
  echo "cycle-rollover: window inactive (T${DAYS_DELTA} days)" >&2
  exit 0
fi

When active, the rollover module hooks into the analysis pipeline at three points:

  1. Pre-flight (03-data-download.md) — locate the most recent election-cycle/current/ artifact set in the predecessor manifest and load it as the carry-forward baseline.
  2. Post-Pass-2 (04-analysis-pipeline.md) — apply the rename + carry-forward procedure §3.
  3. Pre-aggregate (06-article-generation.md) — emit a cycle-rollover-report.md summarising the conversion.

Anchor-coverage hard rule

When cycle_anchor=both, both election-cycle/current/ and election-cycle/next/ are expected outputs. Skipping an anchor because of runtime pressure is not allowed. If an anchor is intentionally skipped, methodology-reflection.md must include an Anchor coverage decision entry citing a formal reason:

  • cycle-rollover-window-inactive (predicate outside ±30-day window and operator explicitly selected a single anchor), or
  • cycle-rollover-window-transition (T+31 → T+45 freeze semantics from §2 table).

time-budget, timeout, or equivalent wording is never a valid anchor-skip reason.

2 — Cycle-anchor flip rule

The electionCycleAnchor field in the registry is not automatically rotated. Operators flip it via a dedicated PR after the official Riksdagen has been seated (typically T+45 to T+60 days post-election, after government formation negotiations). The rollover module covers the bridge period (T-30 → T+45) when both anchors are simultaneously authoritative:

Days from electioncycle_anchor semanticsRollover behaviour
T-30 → T-1current cycle still authoritative; next cycle pre-positionedBoth anchors generated; next/ artifacts marked [provisional pre-election]
T+0 (election day)Vote count in progressSingle-run emergency: no PR until results lock; reuses realtime-monitor workflow instead
T+1 → T+30Vote count locked; government formation in progressBoth anchors generated; current/ artifacts add a # 📜 Mandate retrospective H1; next/ upgraded from provisional
T+31 → T+45Government formedSingle-run: only next/ is regenerated; current/ is frozen as historical record

3 — File-rename + content-carry-forward procedure

🛠 File-write contract: every archival write (analysis/cycles/2022-2026/mandate-scorecard.md, ku-reprimands.md, cohesion-trajectory.md), every PIR carry-forward append to the new-cycle intelligence-assessment.md, and the T+0 cycle-trajectory.md rewind MUST be performed with the edit tool. Never use python3, node -e, sed -i, echo … > file, tee file, or unquoted heredocs (<<EOF) on any cycle-rollover artifact. See 01-bash-and-shell-safety.md §File creation & overwrite strategy.

When the operator flips electionCycleAnchor from current to next in analysis/article-types.json, the rollover procedure defined in this module performs the following idempotent operations against the most recent election-cycle/current/synthesis-summary.md predecessor.

Implementation status. scripts/cycle-rollover.ts is planned future work and is not yet implemented in this repository. Until that script lands, the steps below are operator-run/manual workflow instructions; election-window runs MUST NOT invoke scripts/cycle-rollover.ts and MUST NOT auto-create analysis/cycles/ directories. The analysis/cycles/ archival paths referenced in §3.2 are the target layout for the future script; operators performing manual rollover should mkdir -p analysis/cycles/<cycle-range>/ before copying files.

3.1 Filename aliases

The rollover preserves the canonical-filename pattern already used elsewhere in the repo (e.g. historical-baseline.md ↔ historical-parallels.md):

Pre-rollover filenamePost-rollover filenameBehaviour
election-2026-analysis.mdelection-cycle-analysis.mdAliased; both names map to the same artifact via FILENAME_ALIASES in scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts. When both exist the aggregator prefers election-2026-analysis.md (first in AGGREGATION_ORDER). Post-rollover, workflows write election-cycle-analysis.md as the cycle-agnostic canonical name; write only one name per run to avoid the dedup ambiguity.
cycle-trajectory.mdcycle-trajectory.mdUnchanged filename; content rewinds to T+0 baseline (see §3.3).
intelligence-assessment.mdintelligence-assessment.mdPIRs prefixed by [CYCLE-2022-2026] are archived (see §4); new PIRs prefixed [CYCLE-2026-2030] are seeded.

3.2 Carry-forward content

A small, fixed subset of analysis carries forward from the closing cycle into the opening cycle:

  • Mandate-fulfilment scorecard → archived under analysis/cycles/2022-2026/mandate-scorecard.md (one-time write); referenced by the new cycle's historical-parallels.md as the closest precedent.
  • KU reprimands ledger → archived under analysis/cycles/2022-2026/ku-reprimands.md.
  • Coalition cohesion trajectory → archived under analysis/cycles/2022-2026/cohesion-trajectory.md.
  • Open PIRs flagged as inheritsCycle: true → carried forward verbatim with provenance preserved.

3.3 Cycle-trajectory rewind

cycle-trajectory.md for the new cycle starts with a deliberately empty T+0 baseline:

  • ICD 203 BLUF: "Cycle 2026-2030 baseline established. No mandate trajectory observable yet (T+0)."
  • WEP for every horizon band: roughly even (cannot reasonably be otherwise without 2+ years of evidence).
  • Three forward indicators seeded: (a) first government statement / regeringsförklaring, (b) BP autumn-2026 fiscal stance, (c) first KU referral.

Subsequent runs accrete evidence onto this baseline; the ICD 203 BLUF strengthens organically.

4 — PIR archival

Every PIR in pir-status.json declared during the closing cycle is rotated:

// before flip:
{
  "id": "PIR-1-coalition-stability",
  "cycle": "2022-2026",
  "status": "open",
  "obsolescenceDate": "2026-09-13"
}
// after flip:
{
  "id": "PIR-1-coalition-stability",
  "cycle": "2022-2026",
  "status": "archived",
  "archivedReason": "cycle-rollover-2026-09-13",
  "successor": "PIR-1-coalition-stability-2026-2030"
}

PIRs marked inheritsCycle: true (the small set that survive the cycle boundary, e.g. PIR-7 Democratic Norms) get a successor PIR seeded automatically with parent linkage to the archived predecessor.

5 — Operator runbook

The flip from current to next is a CEO-approved Normal change under Change_Management.md. scripts/cycle-rollover.ts is not yet implemented, so the rollover is currently performed manually in the PR:

  1. Bump analysis/article-types.json electionCycles.current to the closed-out cycle and next to the new "next" placeholder.
  2. Perform a manual dry-run review in the PR description: list every analysis/election-cycle/current/ artifact that will be carried forward into analysis/election-cycle/next/, every cycle-scoped artifact that will be archived, and every PIR successor that will be seeded for entries marked inheritsCycle: true.
  3. Apply the rollover manually: archive cycle-scoped PIRs with status: "archived", archivedReason: "cycle-rollover-<election-date>", and successor where applicable; seed successor PIRs with parent linkage; and carry forward the next/ baseline files into the new cycle state described in this module.
  4. Update analysis/methodologies/electoral-domain-methodology.md cycle table.
  5. Append the activation row to analysis/cycles/rollover-log.md using the format in §7 (operator must mkdir -p analysis/cycles/ if the directory does not yet exist — see §3 implementation-status note).
  6. Open the PR; tests/article-types.test.ts > election cycle coherence MUST pass.

The whole sequence is intended to be idempotent — re-applying the same manual rollover on already-rotated state should result in no further content changes. Once scripts/cycle-rollover.ts ships, steps 2–3 are expected to collapse into --dry-run / --apply invocations.

6 — Out of scope

  • The election day itself (T+0) is covered by news-realtime-monitor.md, not this module.
  • Per-document Family-E coverage of the elected MPs (the new 349 ledamöter) is bootstrapped by news-monthly-review.md runs T+30 onward, not by this module.
  • Coalition-formation prediction before election day uses news-election-cycle.md → next anchor with [provisional pre-election] marker; after election day the anchor moves to current once the operator flips the registry.

7 — Audit trail

Every activation of this module appends a one-line audit row to analysis/cycles/rollover-log.md:

2026-09-13 | cycle-rollover | activated | from=2022-2026 to=2026-2030 | run-id=<workflow-run-url>

This file is append-only and serves as the historical record of every cycle transition the platform has handled.