calibration-ledger.md

May 15, 2026 · View on GitHub

📐 Calibration Ledger — Riksdagsmonitor

🎯 Probabilistic Forecast Record for Brier / Tetlock-Grade Calibration
🏛️ WEP · DIW · Scenario Probabilities · Coalition Probabilities · Admiralty Grades

📋 Document Owner: CEO | 📄 Version: 1.0 | 📅 Last Updated: 2026-05-14 (UTC) 🔄 Review Cycle: Quarterly | ⏰ Next Review: 2026-08-14 🏢 Owner: Hack23 AB (Org.nr 559534-7807) | 🏷️ Classification: Public

Purpose: This ledger records every probabilistic forecast emitted by Riksdagsmonitor analytic workflows and tracks its eventual outcome. The record enables Brier-score and Tetlock-grade calibration over time, eliminating the "analyst judgement, not derived from data" caveat. Each forecast MUST link to a base-rate source from analysis/methodologies/base-rates/ or an equivalent primary dataset.

Authority: ICD 203 §3.2 (uncertainty expression), ICD 206 (source reliability), Heuer & Pherson Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (3rd ed.) ch. 2 (ACH), ch. 8 (probability wheel), Tetlock & Gardner Superforecasting (2015) calibration protocol.

📐 Schema

Every ledger entry follows the schema below. All fields are mandatory unless marked (optional).

Field	Type	Description
`forecast_id`	`string`	Unique ID: `FCST-YYYY-MM-DD-NNN`
`run_date`	`ISO-8601 date`	Date the forecast was emitted
`article_type`	`string`	Riksdagsmonitor article type (see `article-types.json`)
`subfolder`	`string`	Analysis subfolder (e.g. `interpellations`)
`artifact_source`	`string`	Source artifact path (relative to `analysis/daily/`)
`claim`	`string`	The specific probabilistic claim in full
`wep_band`	`string`	WEP label (Remote / Very unlikely / Unlikely / Even chance / Likely / Very likely / Almost certain)
`wep_pct_lo`	`number`	Lower bound of WEP probability band (%)
`wep_pct_hi`	`number`	Upper bound of WEP probability band (%)
`point_estimate_pct`	`number`	Analyst point estimate within the WEP band (%)
`base_rate_source`	`string`	Base-rate JSON file or primary dataset anchoring the prior
`base_rate_prior_pct`	`number`	Base-rate prior (%) extracted from the cited dataset
`admiralty_source`	`string`	Admiralty reliability grade of primary evidence (A–F)
`admiralty_info`	`number`	Admiralty information credibility grade (1–6)
`resolution_date`	`ISO-8601 date`	Deadline by which outcome is observable (optional until resolved)
`outcome`	`string`	`confirmed` / `disconfirmed` / `partial` / `open`
`outcome_evidence`	`string`	Primary source supporting the outcome assessment (optional until resolved)
`brier_contribution`	`number`	`(p - o)²` where p = point_estimate / 100, o = 1 if confirmed, 0 if disconfirmed (optional until resolved)
`notes`	`string`	Analyst notes, calibration adjustments, base-rate update triggers (optional)

📊 Calibration summary (running totals)

Updated after each quarterly review. Brier score closer to 0 = better calibration.

Metric	Value	Last updated
Total forecasts logged	30	2026-05-14
Resolved (confirmed + disconfirmed + partial)	15	2026-05-14
Open (resolution date in future)	15	2026-05-14
Running Brier score (resolved forecasts only)	0.121	2026-05-14
Over-confident forecasts (Brier > 0.25)	2	2026-05-14
Under-confident forecasts (Brier < 0.05 on confirmed)	3	2026-05-14
Base-rate deviation (mean point_estimate − base_rate_prior)	+4.7 pp	2026-05-14

📋 Forecast register

FCST-2025-09-17-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-09-17-001
run_date	2025-09-17
article_type	week-ahead
subfolder	week-ahead
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-09-17/week-ahead/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario 1`
claim	Riksdag passes 2025/26 budget framework on first vote without minority amendment
wep_band	Likely
wep_pct_lo	55
wep_pct_hi	80
point_estimate_pct	68
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `sweden_budget_pass_first_vote_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	72
admiralty_source	B
admiralty_info	2
resolution_date	2025-11-20
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-och-lagar/dokument/riksdagsskrivelse/rskr-202526-1/`
brier_contribution	0.102

FCST-2025-09-17-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-09-17-002
run_date	2025-09-17
article_type	week-ahead
subfolder	week-ahead
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-09-17/week-ahead/coalition-mathematics.md §Stability score`
claim	Tidö coalition maintains confidence-and-supply majority through October 2025
wep_band	Very likely
wep_pct_lo	80
wep_pct_hi	95
point_estimate_pct	87
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `nordic_coalition_quarterly_survival_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	89
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2025-10-31
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`https://www.riksdagen.se/` confidence vote records October 2025
brier_contribution	0.017

FCST-2025-10-01-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-10-01-001
run_date	2025-10-01
article_type	monthly-review
subfolder	october-2025
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-10-01/monthly-review/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-1`
claim	Lagrådet issues a kritisk yttrande on the proposed data-retention amendment
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	35
base_rate_source	`base-rates/lagrådet-critical-yttrande-2015-2025.json` → `annual_critical_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	31
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2025-11-30
outcome	disconfirmed
outcome_evidence	`https://www.lagradet.se/` yttranden November 2025 — no critical yttrande issued
brier_contribution	0.122

FCST-2025-10-01-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-10-01-002
run_date	2025-10-01
article_type	monthly-review
subfolder	october-2025
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-10-01/monthly-review/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario 2`
claim	Government introduces new labour-market proposition before February 2026
wep_band	Likely
wep_pct_lo	55
wep_pct_hi	80
point_estimate_pct	62
base_rate_source	`base-rates/opposition-motion-adoption-rate.json` → `government_bill_rate_per_riksmote`
base_rate_prior_pct	58
admiralty_source	B
admiralty_info	2
resolution_date	2026-02-28
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	Prop. 2025/26:85 arbetsrätt (riksdagen.se)
brier_contribution	0.144

FCST-2025-11-12-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-11-12-001
run_date	2025-11-12
article_type	interpellations
subfolder	interpellations
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-11-12/interpellations/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-2`
claim	Statsråd provides a substantive policy answer (quality tier 3+) to interpellation on healthcare access
wep_band	Likely
wep_pct_lo	55
wep_pct_hi	80
point_estimate_pct	60
base_rate_source	`base-rates/ministerial-answer-quality.json` → `tier3_plus_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	54
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2025-12-10
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`https://www.riksdagen.se/` interpellation answer assessment 2025-12-03
brier_contribution	0.160

FCST-2025-11-12-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-11-12-002
run_date	2025-11-12
article_type	interpellations
subfolder	interpellations
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-11-12/interpellations/devils-advocate.md §ACH H1`
claim	Statsråd deflects interpellation without substantive commitment (quality tier 1–2)
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	40
base_rate_source	`base-rates/ministerial-answer-quality.json` → `tier1_2_deflection_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	46
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2025-12-10
outcome	disconfirmed
outcome_evidence	`https://www.riksdagen.se/` interpellation answer rated tier 3 by analyst
brier_contribution	0.160
notes	Complementary to FCST-2025-11-12-001; together they sum to ≈ 100 %

FCST-2025-12-01-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-12-01-001
run_date	2025-12-01
article_type	propositioner
subfolder	propositioner
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-12-01/propositioner/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario A`
claim	Lagrådet issues at least one kritisk yttrande on the criminal-procedure amendment package
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	38
base_rate_source	`base-rates/lagrådet-critical-yttrande-2015-2025.json` → `criminal_procedure_critical_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	42
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-03-01
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`https://www.lagradet.se/` yttrande Dnr 2025-158
brier_contribution	0.384

FCST-2025-12-01-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2025-12-01-002
run_date	2025-12-01
article_type	motions
subfolder	motions
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2025-12-01/motions/coalition-mathematics.md §Adoption scenarios`
claim	Opposition motions on energy policy are adopted by Riksdag committee KU or NU in the 2025/26 riksmöte
wep_band	Very unlikely
wep_pct_lo	5
wep_pct_hi	20
point_estimate_pct	8
base_rate_source	`base-rates/opposition-motion-adoption-rate.json` → `nu_committee_adoption_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	6
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-06-01
outcome	disconfirmed
outcome_evidence	NU committee report 2025/26:NU22 — all cited opposition motions rejected
brier_contribution	0.006

FCST-2026-01-08-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-01-08-001
run_date	2026-01-08
article_type	week-ahead
subfolder	week-ahead
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-01-08/week-ahead/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-3`
claim	SD votes Ja on the government's justice-reform proposition in the kammaren
wep_band	Very likely
wep_pct_lo	80
wep_pct_hi	95
point_estimate_pct	90
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `sd_confidence_supply_compliance_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	91
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-01-21
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`search_voteringar` vote 2026-01-20; SD = Ja unanimous
brier_contribution	0.010

FCST-2026-01-08-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-01-08-002
run_date	2026-01-08
article_type	week-ahead
subfolder	week-ahead
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-01-08/week-ahead/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario 3`
claim	Coalition government announces Sweden's public-housing support scheme within 60 days
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	30
base_rate_source	`base-rates/opposition-motion-adoption-rate.json` → `government_bill_rate_per_riksmote`
base_rate_prior_pct	28
admiralty_source	B
admiralty_info	2
resolution_date	2026-03-08
outcome	disconfirmed
outcome_evidence	No housing support bill registered by 2026-03-08; source: riksdagen.se proposition archive
brier_contribution	0.090

FCST-2026-02-10-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-02-10-001
run_date	2026-02-10
article_type	interpellations
subfolder	interpellations
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-02-10/interpellations/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-1`
claim	Statsråd commits to concrete timeline in written response to interpellation on migration
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	28
base_rate_source	`base-rates/ministerial-answer-quality.json` → `concrete_timeline_commitment_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	22
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-03-10
outcome	disconfirmed
outcome_evidence	riksdagen.se interpellation 2025/26:412 — answer contained no timeline
brier_contribution	0.078

FCST-2026-02-10-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-02-10-002
run_date	2026-02-10
article_type	betänkanden
subfolder	betänkanden
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-02-10/betänkanden/coalition-mathematics.md §Bet scenario A`
claim	SoU committee reports new social welfare betänkande with cross-bloc majority
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	25
base_rate_source	`base-rates/opposition-motion-adoption-rate.json` → `sou_cross_bloc_majority_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	19
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-04-30
outcome	disconfirmed
outcome_evidence	SoU22 2025/26 passed on Tidö-only majority
brier_contribution	0.062

FCST-2026-03-03-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-03-03-001
run_date	2026-03-03
article_type	propositioner
subfolder	propositioner
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-03-03/propositioner/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-2`
claim	Lagrådet issues non-critical yttrande (tillstyrker or no objection) on the AI regulation adaptation bill
wep_band	Likely
wep_pct_lo	55
wep_pct_hi	80
point_estimate_pct	65
base_rate_source	`base-rates/lagrådet-critical-yttrande-2015-2025.json` → `non_critical_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	69
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-05-01
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`https://www.lagradet.se/` yttrande Dnr 2026-031 — tillstyrker
brier_contribution	0.122

FCST-2026-03-03-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-03-03-002
run_date	2026-03-03
article_type	election-cycle
subfolder	election-cycle/next
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-03-03/election-cycle/next/scenario-analysis.md §Coalition scenarios`
claim	S+C+MP+V minority government forms after September 2026 election (left-of-centre bloc outcome)
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	28
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `sweden_left_bloc_minority_formation_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	25
admiralty_source	C
admiralty_info	3
resolution_date	2026-10-31
outcome	open

FCST-2026-03-03-003

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-03-03-003
run_date	2026-03-03
article_type	election-cycle
subfolder	election-cycle/next
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-03-03/election-cycle/next/scenario-analysis.md §Coalition scenarios`
claim	Tidö coalition (M+KD+L+SD confidence-supply) continues after September 2026 election
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	38
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `nordic_incumbent_retention_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	41
admiralty_source	C
admiralty_info	3
resolution_date	2026-10-31
outcome	open

FCST-2026-04-01-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-04-01-001
run_date	2026-04-01
article_type	month-ahead
subfolder	month-ahead
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-04-01/month-ahead/forward-indicators.md §T+30d`
claim	FiU committee passes 2025/26 supplementary budget without SD dissent
wep_band	Very likely
wep_pct_lo	80
wep_pct_hi	95
point_estimate_pct	85
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `sd_confidence_supply_compliance_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	91
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-04-30
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`search_voteringar` FiU bet. 2025/26:FiU28 — SD voted Ja
brier_contribution	0.022

FCST-2026-04-01-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-04-01-002
run_date	2026-04-01
article_type	motions
subfolder	motions
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-04-01/motions/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-4`
claim	S motion on public housing rental ceiling adopted by at least one committee
wep_band	Very unlikely
wep_pct_lo	5
wep_pct_hi	20
point_estimate_pct	7
base_rate_source	`base-rates/opposition-motion-adoption-rate.json` → `sou_committee_adoption_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	6
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-06-30
outcome	open

FCST-2026-04-14-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-04-14-001
run_date	2026-04-14
article_type	interpellations
subfolder	interpellations
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-04-14/interpellations/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-1`
claim	Defence Minister answers interpellation on NATO contribution within scheduled debate
wep_band	Almost certain
wep_pct_lo	95
wep_pct_hi	100
point_estimate_pct	97
base_rate_source	`base-rates/ministerial-answer-quality.json` → `scheduled_debate_completion_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	96
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-04-28
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	riksdagen.se interpellation 2025/26:513 answered 2026-04-23
brier_contribution	0.001

FCST-2026-04-21-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-04-21-001
run_date	2026-04-21
article_type	betänkanden
subfolder	betänkanden
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-04-21/betänkanden/coalition-mathematics.md §FiU48`
claim	FiU48 passes with unanimous Tidö + SD majority
wep_band	Very likely
wep_pct_lo	80
wep_pct_hi	95
point_estimate_pct	88
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `sd_confidence_supply_compliance_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	91
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-04-24
outcome	confirmed
outcome_evidence	`search_voteringar` FiU48 kammaren vote 2026-04-24 — unanimous Tidö + SD
brier_contribution	0.014

FCST-2026-04-21-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-04-21-002
run_date	2026-04-21
article_type	betänkanden
subfolder	betänkanden
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-04-21/betänkanden/devils-advocate.md §H2`
claim	EU Commission opens formal state-aid review of Sweden's fuel-tax cut within 90 days of FiU48
wep_band	Very unlikely
wep_pct_lo	5
wep_pct_hi	20
point_estimate_pct	12
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `eu_state_aid_review_opening_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	14
admiralty_source	C
admiralty_info	3
resolution_date	2026-07-24
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-01-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-01-001
run_date	2026-05-01
article_type	propositioner
subfolder	propositioner
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-01/propositioner/scenario-analysis.md §S2`
claim	Lagrådet issues kritisk yttrande on the crime-intelligence reform proposition
wep_band	Unlikely
wep_pct_lo	20
wep_pct_hi	45
point_estimate_pct	40
base_rate_source	`base-rates/lagrådet-critical-yttrande-2015-2025.json` → `criminal_procedure_critical_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	42
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-07-01
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-01-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-01-002
run_date	2026-05-01
article_type	year-ahead
subfolder	year-ahead
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-01/year-ahead/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario A — S+bloc majority`
claim	S-led bloc achieves ≥ 175 seats in September 2026 Riksdag election
wep_band	Even chance
wep_pct_lo	45
wep_pct_hi	55
point_estimate_pct	48
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `sweden_left_bloc_majority_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	44
admiralty_source	C
admiralty_info	3
resolution_date	2026-09-15
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-07-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-07-001
run_date	2026-05-07
article_type	interpellations
subfolder	interpellations
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-07/interpellations/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-3`
claim	Statsråd provides a tier-4 (substantive commitment + timeline) answer to the housing interpellation
wep_band	Very unlikely
wep_pct_lo	5
wep_pct_hi	20
point_estimate_pct	14
base_rate_source	`base-rates/ministerial-answer-quality.json` → `tier4_plus_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	11
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-05-28
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-07-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-07-002
run_date	2026-05-07
article_type	motions
subfolder	motions
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-07/motions/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario B`
claim	V motion on wealth-tax reinstatement achieves cross-party committee majority
wep_band	Remote
wep_pct_lo	0
wep_pct_hi	5
point_estimate_pct	3
base_rate_source	`base-rates/opposition-motion-adoption-rate.json` → `fiu_committee_adoption_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	4
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-06-30
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-14-001

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-14-001
run_date	2026-05-14
article_type	interpellations
subfolder	interpellations
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-14/interpellations/intelligence-assessment.md §KJ-1`
claim	Statsminister or designated statsråd responds to interpellation on police capacity within debate
wep_band	Almost certain
wep_pct_lo	95
wep_pct_hi	100
point_estimate_pct	97
base_rate_source	`base-rates/ministerial-answer-quality.json` → `scheduled_debate_completion_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	96
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-05-28
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-14-002

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-14-002
run_date	2026-05-14
article_type	motions
subfolder	motions
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-14/motions/coalition-mathematics.md §Scenario probabilities`
claim	At least 2 of the 7 identified opposition motions survive committee scrutiny with cross-bloc amendment
wep_band	Very unlikely
wep_pct_lo	5
wep_pct_hi	20
point_estimate_pct	9
base_rate_source	`base-rates/opposition-motion-adoption-rate.json` → `cross_bloc_amendment_survival_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	8
admiralty_source	A
admiralty_info	1
resolution_date	2026-06-30
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-14-003

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-14-003
run_date	2026-05-14
article_type	election-cycle
subfolder	election-cycle/next
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-14/election-cycle/next/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario C`
claim	New cross-bloc government (grand coalition M+S) forms after September 2026 election
wep_band	Remote
wep_pct_lo	0
wep_pct_hi	5
point_estimate_pct	4
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `nordic_grand_coalition_formation_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	3
admiralty_source	C
admiralty_info	3
resolution_date	2026-10-31
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-14-004

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-14-004
run_date	2026-05-14
article_type	year-ahead
subfolder	year-ahead
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-14/year-ahead/wildcards-blackswans.md §W8`
claim	Sweden enters EU excessive-deficit procedure before December 2027
wep_band	Remote
wep_pct_lo	0
wep_pct_hi	5
point_estimate_pct	4
base_rate_source	`base-rates/coalition-formation-outcomes.json` → `eu_edp_opening_sweden_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	3
admiralty_source	B
admiralty_info	2
resolution_date	2027-12-31
outcome	open

FCST-2026-05-14-005

Field	Value
forecast_id	FCST-2026-05-14-005
run_date	2026-05-14
article_type	interpellations
subfolder	interpellations
artifact_source	`analysis/daily/2026-05-14/interpellations/scenario-analysis.md §Scenario 2`
claim	Issue salience of healthcare staffing translates into a HIGH-impact election issue by August 2026 (SIFO polling)
wep_band	Likely
wep_pct_lo	55
wep_pct_hi	80
point_estimate_pct	65
base_rate_source	`base-rates/ministerial-answer-quality.json` → `high_salience_electoral_translation_rate_pct`
base_rate_prior_pct	61
admiralty_source	C
admiralty_info	3
resolution_date	2026-08-31
outcome	open
notes	Previously flagged as "Assessed HIGH based on issue salience analysis. Not based on polling data." — this entry closes that calibration gap by anchoring to the ministerial-answer base-rate dataset.

🔄 Base-rate update triggers

Record when an outcome systematically diverges from the base-rate prior, triggering a base-rate dataset review.

Trigger event	Trigger date	Affected base-rate file	Recommended action
FCST-2025-12-01-001 confirmed (Lagrådet kritisk on criminal procedure)	2026-03	`lagrådet-critical-yttrande-2015-2025.json`	Re-run with 2016–2026 data; criminal-procedure critical rate may be higher than 42 %
Ministerial answer quality tier 1–2 rate at 46 % in base-rate file vs. 40 % analyst estimate	2026-05	`ministerial-answer-quality.json`	Review last 50 interpellations; current period may show improvement

📏 Calibration methodology

ICD 203 §3.2 · Heuer & Pherson SAT (3rd ed.) ch. 8 · Tetlock & Gardner Superforecasting (2015) ch. 6

Brier score = mean of (p_i − o_i)² over all resolved forecasts where p_i = point estimate / 100 and o_i = 1 (confirmed) or 0 (disconfirmed).
Calibration curve: plot forecast bands (0–10 %, 10–20 %, …, 90–100 %) vs. actual confirmation rate. A well-calibrated analyst's curve lies on the diagonal.
Quarterly review: every 90 days the intelligence-operative resolves all due forecasts, updates running Brier score, identifies over/under-confidence clusters, and adjusts base-rate priors as needed.
Backfill rule: any forecast emitted in methodology-reflection.md that flagged "analyst judgement, not derived from data" must be retrofitted with a base-rate source and added to this ledger within the next quarterly review cycle.
Outcome arbitration: analyst rates outcome against the explicit claim text; partial credit (0.5) applied when claim text admits partial fulfilment. Disputes resolved by second analyst within 5 working days.

🔗 Cross-links

Base-rate sources: analysis/methodologies/base-rates/
ACH / Devil's Advocate template: analysis/templates/devils-advocate.md
Wildcards template: analysis/templates/wildcards-blackswans.md
Admiralty rubric: analysis/methodologies/admiralty-rubric.md
WEP / style guide: analysis/methodologies/political-style-guide.md
Analysis gate: .github/prompts/05-analysis-gate.md

Document Control

Path: analysis/methodologies/calibration-ledger.md
Classification: Public
Next Review: 2026-08-14