🗳️ Election Cycle Analysis Template

📊 Electoral Lens — Parameterised by Cycle Anchor (current / next)
🎯 Coalition Scenarios · Voter Salience · Campaign Vulnerability · Policy Legacy

📋 Document Owner: CEO | 📄 Version: 2.0 | 📅 Last Updated: 2026-05-01 (UTC) 🏢 Owner: Hack23 AB (Org.nr 5595347807) | 🏷️ Classification: Public

📌 Template instructions: Produce for every workflow that declares electionCycleAnchor ∈ {current, next, both} in analysis/article-types.json. Save as analysis/daily/${ARTICLE_DATE}/${DOC_TYPE}/election-2026-analysis.md (stable filename) or election-cycle-analysis.md (post-rollover alias). Integrates with voter-segmentation.md, coalition-mathematics.md, and synthesis-summary.md.

✨ What to produce: A focused electoral assessment of the day's documents against the active election cycle (resolved at runtime), classified CRITICAL → NEGLIGIBLE, with coalition-scenario consequences and a dated watchlist.

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📐 Template Contract — every fill of this template MUST satisfy this row.

Slot	Value
Owning methodology	per-artifact-methodologies.md
Owning gate check	Check 8 (Family D — seat deltas) — see 05-analysis-gate.md
Required inputs	polling, voter-segmentation.md, coalition-mathematics.md
Horizon band	cycle (T+1460) (per scripts/horizon-context.ts)
Output family	Family D — Electoral & Domain
Aggregation order	12 of 30 in canonical order (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts)
Reader Intelligence Guide	row generated from election-2026-analysis.md (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/reader-guide.ts)
Canonical evidence anchor	| claim | evidence (dok_id / vote / MP intressent_id / primary-source URL) | retrieved_at | confidence | — every analytical claim row uses this schema.

Cross-reference: README.md §Template ↔ Methodology ↔ Gate-Check Matrix.

🔧 Cycle-Anchor Parameter Resolution

Resolution source: scripts/horizon-context.ts → activeCycleAnchor(articleDate) + analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles.

Parameter	Source	Value
cycleAnchor	activeCycleAnchor(articleDate)	current | next
cycleStart	electionCycles[cycleAnchor].start	e.g. 2022-09-11 (current) or 2026-09-13 (next)
cycleEnd	electionCycles[cycleAnchor].end	e.g. 2026-09-13 (current) or 2030-09-08 (next)
cycleLabel	electionCycles[cycleAnchor].label	e.g. Tidö 2022–2026 (current) or Post-2026 Mandate (next)
governingCoalition	electionCycles[cycleAnchor].governingCoalition	party array or null (next)
daysSinceCycleStart	articleDate − cycleStart (days)	computed at runtime
daysToCycleEnd	cycleEnd − articleDate (days)	computed at runtime
daysToElection	daysToElection(articleDate)	signed integer (negative = past)

Cycle-anchor footnote: The Swedish general elections anchoring this template are 2026-09-13 (next election from the current cycle) and 2030-09-08 (projected next election from the post-2026 cycle). See analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles for the authoritative dates.

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🔄 Tradecraft Context

Element	Value
F3EAD Stage	ANALYZE → DISSEMINATE — electoral intelligence product
PIRs Served	PIR-6 (Election Integrity), PIR-1 (Coalition Stability)
Admiralty Floor	Polling data requires [B2] (named pollster, date, MoE); seat projections require [B2]
WEP + ODNI	Electoral outcome scenarios use WEP (likely/very likely for coalition continuity; roughly even for bloc shift); confidence MODERATE (polling inherent uncertainty)
Source Diversity Floor	P0 (election outcome claims): ≥4 sources (≥3 polls + ≥1 historical model); single poll labeled [unconfirmed — single source]
SAT(s) Applied	Morphological Analysis (bloc combinations), Indicators and Signposts (campaign milestones)
ICD 203 Standards	2 (uncertainties — polling MoE), 5 (customer relevance — electoral calendar), 9 (visual information)

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📋 Electoral Context

Field	Value
Analysis ID	ELC-YYYY-MM-DD-NNN
Generated	YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC
Cycle anchor	${cycleAnchor} (current or next)
Cycle label	${cycleLabel}
Cycle window	${cycleStart} → ${cycleEnd}
Days since cycle start	${daysSinceCycleStart}
Days to cycle end	${daysToCycleEnd}
Days to election	${daysToElection}
Phase	Pre-campaign · Campaign (Aug-Sep) · Final week · Post-election
Latest SIFO (government block)	XX%
Latest SIFO (opposition block)	XX%
Electoral significance verdict	🔴 CRITICAL / 🟠 HIGH / 🟡 MODERATE / 🟢 LOW / ⚪ NEGLIGIBLE

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🧭 Electoral Significance Classification

flowchart LR
    DOC["📄 Today's documents"] --> EVAL["🧪 Evaluate 5 dimensions"]
    EVAL --> D1["🎯 Electoral Impact"]
    EVAL --> D2["🧩 Coalition Scenarios"]
    EVAL --> D3["🫂 Voter Salience"]
    EVAL --> D4["⚔️ Campaign Vulnerability"]
    EVAL --> D5["📜 Policy Legacy"]
    D1 --> VERDICT["🏷️ Verdict<br/>CRITICAL / HIGH / MODERATE / LOW / NEGLIGIBLE"]
    D2 --> VERDICT
    D3 --> VERDICT
    D4 --> VERDICT
    D5 --> VERDICT

    style DOC fill:#1565C0,color:#FFFFFF
    style EVAL fill:#7B1FA2,color:#FFFFFF
    style VERDICT fill:#D32F2F,color:#FFFFFF

Tier	Criterion	Example
🔴 CRITICAL	Event will directly affect the outcome	Coalition fracture, grundlag change, scandal confirmation
🟠 HIGH	Significant pre-election narrative contribution	Fiscal package, major justice bill, foreign-policy pivot
🟡 MODERATE	Peripheral electoral relevance	Sector-specific reform with indirect voter effect
🟢 LOW	Minimal electoral impact	Routine administrative change
⚪ NEGLIGIBLE	No discernible electoral dimension	Technical corrigenda

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🎯 5-Dimension Electoral Assessment

Dimension 1 — Electoral Impact

Item	Value
Claim	e.g., HD03236 raises incumbent retention probability by 2–4 pp
Evidence	SIFO month-on-month change in target segments
Confidence	🟩 HIGH
Net shift	+2–4 pp incumbent

Dimension 2 — Coalition Scenarios

Coalition configuration	Before today	After today	Delta
M-KD-L + SD (current)	47.0 %	47.5 %	+0.5 pp
S-C-MP-V	51.5 %	51.0 %	−0.5 pp
Centre-grand coalition (S-C-M)	48.0 %	47.8 %	−0.2 pp

Dimension 3 — Voter Salience

Segment	Affected (n)	Direction	Source
Rural drivers	1.2 M	➕ positive for incumbent	HD03236 fuel-tax
Suburban homeowners	1.8 M	➕ positive for incumbent	HD03236 energy support
Urban renters	2.1 M	➖ no benefit	HD03236 excludes rental property owners
Climate-conscious voters	0.9 M	➖ negative for incumbent	Fuel-tax cut vs. Green Deal

Dimension 4 — Campaign Vulnerability

Attack vector	Who exploits	Evidence line	Severity
"Regressive fuel-tax cut benefits rich"	S + V	Distributional analysis	🟠 HIGH
"EU non-compliance"	MP + C	State-aid risk	🟡 MEDIUM
"Ignores renters"	V	Excluded segment	🟠 HIGH

Dimension 5 — Policy Legacy

Horizon	Legacy question	Verdict
${cycleEnd} (campaign / formation)	Asset or liability?	🟢 Asset for rural districts; 🟠 Liability for urban renters
+1 year post-cycle	Reversible?	🟡 Reversible but costly
+4 years (legacy)	Institutional change?	🟢 No lasting institutional effect

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🧩 Coalition-Mathematics Hook

graph LR
    GOV["🏛️ Government bloc<br/>M + KD + L<br/>42% + SD 13% = 55"] --> SHIFT["+0.5 pp shift<br/>from HD03236"]
    SHIFT --> GOV2["🏛️ Post-shift bloc<br/>55.5"]
    OPP["🟥 Opposition bloc<br/>S + V + C + MP"] --> SHIFT2["−0.5 pp shift"]
    SHIFT2 --> OPP2["🟥 Post-shift bloc<br/>44.5"]

    style GOV fill:#1565C0,color:#FFFFFF
    style OPP fill:#D32F2F,color:#FFFFFF
    style SHIFT fill:#4CAF50,color:#FFFFFF
    style SHIFT2 fill:#FF9800,color:#FFFFFF
    style GOV2 fill:#7B1FA2,color:#FFFFFF
    style OPP2 fill:#7B1FA2,color:#FFFFFF

Cross-reference coalition-mathematics.md for full seat-projection arithmetic.

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🗓️ Cycle Watchlist

Populate with the key upcoming events within the active cycle window (${cycleStart} → ${cycleEnd}).

Date	Event	Why it matters
YYYY-MM-DD	Key event within cycle	Impact on cycle outcome
YYYY-MM-DD	Polling milestone	Locks positional narrative
${cycleEnd}	Cycle end (election / mandate expiry)	Outcome

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🧠 Electoral-Strategy Read-Through

Party	Most likely current move	Signal detected today
M	…	…
S	…	…
SD	…	…
C	…	…
MP	…	…
V	…	…
L	…	…
KD	…	…

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📊 Mandate-Fulfilment Scorecard (cycleAnchor=current ONLY)

Condition: Include this section ONLY when cycleAnchor=current. Omit entirely when cycleAnchor=next.

Tracks the incumbent governing coalition's delivery against their mandate agreement (e.g., Tidö agreement for the 2022–2026 cycle).

Domain	Agreement commitment	Status	Evidence
Migration	Paradigm shift (reduced asylum)	🟩 Delivered / 🟨 Partial / 🟥 Undelivered	dok_id or named act
Crime	Extended sentences, gang prevention	…	…
Energy	Nuclear planning, grid investment	…	…
Economy	Tax reform, fiscal consolidation	…	…
Healthcare	Care guarantee improvement	…	…

Accountability metric	Count / Status	Source
KU reprimands this cycle	N	KU årsredogörelse
Budget proposals delivered (BP)	N of expected	Riksdagen
Spring-bill (VP) delivery	N of expected	Riksdagen
Confidence votes survived	N	Voteringar

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🔮 Coalition-Formation Forecast (cycleAnchor=next ONLY)

Condition: Include this section ONLY when cycleAnchor=next. Omit entirely when cycleAnchor=current.

Post-election scenario tree — assesses the most likely government-formation pathways for the upcoming mandate.

Scenario	Parties	Projected seats	Probability (WEP)	Key assumption
Continuation (incumbent re-elected)	…	…	…	…
Centre-grand coalition	…	…	…	…
Left-green bloc	…	…	…	…
Minority government	…	…	…	…

Opposition trajectory

Opposition actor	Strategic posture	Signal strength	Evidence
Largest opposition party	…	…	…
Potential kingmaker	…	…	…
Threshold-risk party (< 4%)	…	…	…

Formation timeline

Phase	Expected date range	Key actor	Trigger
Election day	${cycleStart}	Electorate	Vote
Exploratory talks	+1–14 days	Talman	Convention
Government declaration	+14–45 days	PM candidate	Riksdag vote
First budget (BP)	+60–120 days	New government	Fiscal calendar

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🔁 Update Cadence

Frequency	Action
Every run	Update days-to-election and phase fields
Weekly (Sunday)	Update SIFO figures and coalition-scenario deltas
On any CRITICAL event	Immediate rewrite of 5-dimension assessment

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📎 Links

Link	Path
Voter segmentation	voter-segmentation.md
Coalition mathematics	coalition-mathematics.md
Scenario analysis	scenario-analysis.md
Synthesis summary	synthesis-summary.md

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Document Control

• Template path: /analysis/templates/election-2026-analysis.md
• Also known as: election-cycle-analysis.md (canonical post-rollover alias), election-2026-implications.md (legacy filename variant)
• Referenced by: ai-driven-analysis-guide.md § Step 5
• Parameter source: scripts/horizon-context.ts → activeCycleAnchor(), daysToElection(); analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles
• Classification: Public
• Next Review: 2026-07-21

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✅ Pass-2 Self-Audit Checklist (v4.4 — required)

Purpose: AI-FIRST principle requires a Pass-2 read-back-and-improve. After producing this artifact in Pass 1, re-read it end-to-end and verify each item below. Document any remediation in methodology-reflection.md §"Pass-2 audit log". Any unchecked ❌ box at the end of Pass 2 forces a Pass-3 rewrite of the affected section.

• Tradecraft anchors honoured — F3EAD stage matches the artifact's role; PIRs declared in the §Tradecraft Context block are actually addressed in the body; Admiralty grades attached to every external source; WEP band + ODNI confidence on every probabilistic judgement.
• Source diversity floor met — at least the minimum number of independent MCP sources required by the artifact's tradecraft block are cited; single-source claims are explicitly labelled [SINGLE-SOURCE — corroboration pending].
• Evidence specificity — every quantified claim cites a dok_id (Riksdag), an SCB / IMF dataflow code, or a named external source with date; no "according to data" / "studies show" hand-waves.
• Named-actor discipline — every political claim names ≥ 1 person (party + role + dated act/quote) or labels the absence ([diffuse — no named actor]).
• Counter-narrative present — at least one explicit competing hypothesis, dissent quote, or framed objection appears in the body; "no opposition recorded" is itself a finding to label, not silence.
• Election cycle lens applied — the §"Cycle Watchlist" subsection addresses electoral salience, coalition pressure, and forward indicators for the active ${cycleAnchor} cycle; not boilerplate. If cycleAnchor=current, §"Mandate-Fulfilment Scorecard" is present and populated. If cycleAnchor=next, §"Coalition-Formation Forecast" is present and populated.
• No illustrative content shipped as fact — every [REQUIRED] placeholder is filled OR removed; every Example: block is clearly fenced or removed; no fabricated dok_id, vote count, or quote leaks into the final artifact.
• Cross-references resolve — every [link](file.md) in this artifact points to a file that exists in the run folder (analysis/daily/$ARTICLE_DATE/$SUBFOLDER/) or to a methodology / template under analysis/.
• Mermaid renders — every fenced ```mermaid block parses (no missing class definitions, no orphan nodes, no >40-node graphs that overflow viewport on mobile).
• Line-floor check — artifact length ≥ the per-artifact floor in reference-quality-thresholds.json; shorter artifacts trigger Pass-2 rewrite, never a [truncated] note.