horizon-pir-rollforward.md

May 3, 2026 · View on GitHub

🔁 Horizon PIR Roll-Forward Template

📋 Supplementary — Captures PIR Genealogy Across Long-Horizon Runs
🧭 Quarter / Year / Cycle — Never Blocking, Always Recommended

📋 Document Owner: CEO | 📄 Version: 1.0 | 📅 Last Updated: 2026-05-01 (UTC) 🏢 Owner: Hack23 AB (Org.nr 559534-7807) | 🏷️ Classification: Public

📌 Template instructions: Produce for news-quarter-ahead, news-year-ahead, news-election-cycle runs whenever an immediate predecessor exists. Save as analysis/daily/${ARTICLE_DATE}/${DOC_TYPE}/horizon-pir-rollforward.md. Supplementary — never blocking on its own; if absent the workflow MUST add a  comment in methodology-reflection.md.

✨ What to produce: A genealogical record of every Priority Intelligence Requirement (PIR) carried forward from the predecessor run, plus every PIR newly created in this run, plus every PIR archived (resolved or obsoleted). Wired into scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts.

📐 Template Contract — every fill of this template MUST satisfy this row.

Slot Value
Owning methodology per-artifact-methodologies.md
Owning gate check Supplementary (long-horizon) — see 05-analysis-gate.md
Required inputs predecessor run PIR ledger; roll-forward-pirs.ts
Horizon band mixed (quarter/year/cycle) (per scripts/horizon-context.ts)
Output family Operational Supplementary
Aggregation order 28 of 30 in canonical order (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts)
Reader Intelligence Guide row generated from horizon-pir-rollforward.md (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/reader-guide.ts)
Canonical evidence anchor | claim | evidence (dok_id / vote / MP intressent_id / primary-source URL) | retrieved_at | confidence | — every analytical claim row uses this schema.

Cross-reference: README.md §Template ↔ Methodology ↔ Gate-Check Matrix.

Slot	Value
Owning methodology	`per-artifact-methodologies.md`
Owning gate check	Supplementary (long-horizon) — see `05-analysis-gate.md`
Required inputs	predecessor run PIR ledger; `roll-forward-pirs.ts`
Horizon band	mixed (quarter/year/cycle) (per `scripts/horizon-context.ts`)
Output family	Operational Supplementary
Aggregation order	28 of 30 in canonical order (see `scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts`)
Reader Intelligence Guide	row generated from `horizon-pir-rollforward.md` (see `scripts/render-lib/aggregator/reader-guide.ts`)
Canonical evidence anchor	`\| claim \| evidence (dok_id / vote / MP intressent_id / primary-source URL) \| retrieved_at \| confidence \|` — every analytical claim row uses this schema.

🔄 Tradecraft Context

Element	Value
Methodology	PIR roll-forward (intelligence-cycle continuity); replaces inline PIR-roll-forward prose previously scattered through `intelligence-assessment.md` and `methodology-reflection.md`
Primary input	Predecessor `pir-status.json` (most recent same-type folder) + current run's `pir-status.json`
Owner	Workflow author + `scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts`
Trigger	Long-horizon workflow with immediate predecessor (within `lookbackDays` per registry)
Audience	Internal continuity; auditors verifying analytic discipline

1 — Predecessor Manifest

Predecessor folder: analysis/daily/<YYYY-MM-DD>/<subfolder>/
Predecessor pir-status.json: <SHA-256 of file content>
Days since predecessor: <NN>

If no predecessor exists, this section reads:

First long-horizon run for this subfolder type. PIR genealogy starts at this run.

2 — PIR Genealogy Table

PIR ID	First seen	Status (this run)	Origin	Successor	Notes
PIR-1-coalition-stability	2024-09-13	active	inherited	—	Continued from predecessor, evidence updated
PIR-7-democratic-norms	2023-04-12	active	inherited (cycle-spanning)	—	Marked `inheritsCycle: true`
PIR-23-pension-reform	2026-05-01	new	this run	—	Created in response to BP 2027 leak
PIR-15-energy-policy	2024-12-15	archived	inherited	PIR-15b	Resolved by Energiöverenskommelsen 2.0
…	…	…	…	…	…

Status taxonomy: active | archived | superseded | dormant | provisional.

Origin taxonomy: inherited | inherited (cycle-spanning) | this run | revived.

3 — PIR Coverage Map

For each PIR carried forward, indicate which artifacts in this run engage with it:

PIR ID	`intelligence-assessment.md`	`forward-indicators.md`	`scenario-analysis.md`	`risk-assessment.md`	`cycle-trajectory.md` (cycle only)
PIR-1-coalition-stability	✅	✅	✅	✅	✅
PIR-7-democratic-norms	✅	✅	—	✅	✅
(one row per active PIR)	…	…	…	…	…

A PIR not engaged in any artifact is a Pass-2 rewrite trigger (it should either be archived or actively addressed).

PIR genealogy graph

%%{init: {"theme":"dark","themeVariables":{"primaryColor":"#1565C0","primaryTextColor":"#ffffff","lineColor":"#FFBE0B","secondaryColor":"#7B1FA2","tertiaryColor":"#2E7D32","fontFamily":"Inter, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"}}}%%
flowchart LR
    PRED["📂 Predecessor run<br/>pir-status.json"]:::pred
    THIS["📂 This run<br/>pir-status.json"]:::this

    subgraph ACTIVE["🟢 Active (carried forward)"]
        A1["PIR-1 · Coalition stability<br/>inherited"]:::active
        A2["PIR-7 · Democratic norms<br/>inherited (cycle-spanning)"]:::cycle
    end
    subgraph NEW["🟡 New (this run)"]
        N1["PIR-23 · Pension reform<br/>created"]:::new
    end
    subgraph ARCHIVED["⚫ Archived"]
        Z1["PIR-15 · Energy policy<br/>resolved → PIR-15b"]:::archived
    end

    PRED --> A1
    PRED --> A2
    PRED --> Z1
    THIS --> A1
    THIS --> A2
    THIS --> N1
    Z1 -.superseded-by.-> N1

    classDef pred fill:#1565C0,color:#ffffff
    classDef this fill:#7B1FA2,color:#ffffff
    classDef active fill:#2E7D32,color:#ffffff,stroke:#FFBE0B,stroke-width:2px
    classDef cycle fill:#00897B,color:#ffffff,stroke:#FFBE0B,stroke-dasharray:4 3
    classDef new fill:#FFBE0B,color:#000000,stroke:#FF006E,stroke-width:2px
    classDef archived fill:#616161,color:#ffffff

Colour coding: 🟦 predecessor run · 🟣 this run · 🟢 active inherited PIR · 🟢-dashed cycle-spanning PIR (inheritsCycle: true, teal #00897B) · 🟡 newly-created PIR · ⚫ archived PIR. Solid edges encode PIR provenance; dotted edges encode supersession (PIR-X → PIR-X+1). The graph must contain at least one node per row of the genealogy table above.

4 — Newly Created PIRs

For each PIR created in this run:

### PIR-NN-<short-name>
- **Created:** <YYYY-MM-DD>
- **Owner artifact:** <e.g. risk-assessment.md>
- **Question:** <single sentence — what intelligence question is this PIR designed to answer?>
- **Confidence required to retire:** <HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW + evidence type>
- **Inherits cycle:** true | false (defaults false; only set true if the PIR is constitutional, demographic, or geopolitical in nature)
- **Obsolescence date:** <YYYY-MM-DD or "indefinite — cycle-spanning">
- **First evidence:** <dok_id or URL>

5 — Archived PIRs

For each PIR archived in this run:

PIR ID	Archived reason	Successor (if any)	Final WEP / confidence	Final evidence
…	resolved / obsoleted / superseded / cycle-rollover	…	…	…

6 — Cycle-Rollover Special Case

When .github/prompts/ext/cycle-rollover.md is active (within ± 30 days of an election anchor), this template includes an additional section:

### Cycle-Rollover Manifest
- Closing cycle: 2022-2026
- Opening cycle: 2026-2030
- Inherited PIRs (cycle-spanning): <count>
- Archived PIRs (cycle-bounded): <count>
- New PIRs (opening cycle baseline): <count>
- Carry-forward artifacts written to: analysis/cycles/2022-2026/

Outside the ± 30-day window, this section is omitted.

7 — Pass-2 Self-Audit

Predecessor manifest populated (or first-run note present)
PIR genealogy table covers every PIR in current pir-status.json
PIR coverage map indicates which artifacts engage with each PIR
Every newly-created PIR has all 7 fields populated
Every archived PIR has reason + final WEP
Cycle-rollover section present iff within ± 30 days of an election anchor

8 — Filename + Aggregator

Canonical filename horizon-pir-rollforward.md. Aggregator section title: "Horizon PIR Roll-Forward". Loaded only by long-horizon workflows (week / month / quarter / year / cycle aheads).