scenario-analysis.md

May 3, 2026 · View on GitHub

🔮 Scenario Analysis Template

📊 Structured Future-State Analysis: Base · Upside · Downside · Wildcard
🎯 Probability-Weighted · Trigger-Conditioned · Decision-Supporting

📋 Document Owner: CEO | 📄 Version: 1.3 | 📅 Last Updated: 2026-05-01 (UTC) 🏢 Owner: Hack23 AB (Org.nr 5595347807) | 🏷️ Classification: Public

📌 Template instructions: Produce on every run and save as analysis/daily/${ARTICLE_DATE}/${DOC_TYPE}/scenario-analysis.md. On lighter days, keep the scenario set concise but still complete; when a day's documents carry multi-path uncertainty or the run includes P0/P1-significance material, expand the analysis depth, evidence, and trigger detail. Uses the 5-level confidence scale and DIW weighting defined in ai-driven-analysis-guide.md.

✨ What to produce: Four named scenarios (Base, Upside, Downside, Wildcard), each with explicit probability, trigger conditions, early warning signals, and a decision-playbook paragraph. Probabilities sum to 100%.

📐 Template Contract — every fill of this template MUST satisfy this row.

Slot Value
Owning methodology per-artifact-methodologies.md
Owning gate check Check 7 (Family C — ≥ 3 scenarios + posteriors) — see 05-analysis-gate.md
Required inputs sibling Family A + intelligence-assessment.md
Horizon band per-run (per scripts/horizon-context.ts)
Output family Family C — Strategic Extensions
Aggregation order 8 of 30 in canonical order (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts)
Reader Intelligence Guide row generated from scenario-analysis.md (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/reader-guide.ts)
Canonical evidence anchor | claim | evidence (dok_id / vote / MP intressent_id / primary-source URL) | retrieved_at | confidence | — every analytical claim row uses this schema.

Cross-reference: README.md §Template ↔ Methodology ↔ Gate-Check Matrix.

Slot	Value
Owning methodology	`per-artifact-methodologies.md`
Owning gate check	Check 7 (Family C — ≥ 3 scenarios + posteriors) — see `05-analysis-gate.md`
Required inputs	sibling Family A + intelligence-assessment.md
Horizon band	per-run (per `scripts/horizon-context.ts`)
Output family	Family C — Strategic Extensions
Aggregation order	8 of 30 in canonical order (see `scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts`)
Reader Intelligence Guide	row generated from `scenario-analysis.md` (see `scripts/render-lib/aggregator/reader-guide.ts`)
Canonical evidence anchor	`\| claim \| evidence (dok_id / vote / MP intressent_id / primary-source URL) \| retrieved_at \| confidence \|` — every analytical claim row uses this schema.

🔄 Tradecraft Context

Field	Value
F3EAD stage	`Analyze / Disseminate`
PIRs	`list the priority intelligence requirements this scenario set answers`
Admiralty floor	`B2 for trigger conditions; A1 for anchor evidence from primary MCP sources`
SATs used	`Alternative Futures Analysis; Key Assumptions Check; Indicators & Signposts; Premortem`
ICD 203 standards applied	`uncertainty, alternative analysis, confidence, argumentation, customer relevance`

See political-style-guide.md for canonical F3EAD / PIR catalog / Admiralty Code / ICD 203 / WEP / SATs definitions.

📋 Scenario Context

Field	Value
Scenario ID	`SCN-YYYY-MM-DD-NNN`
Generated	`YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC`
Question	`e.g., "Will the September 2026 election return the current coalition?"`
Time horizon	`e.g., 2026-09-13 (election day) / 6-month / 12-month`
Decision supported	`e.g., "Editorial coverage weight through Q3 2026"`
Source documents	`list of dok_ids`
Overall Confidence	`🟦 VERY HIGH / 🟩 HIGH / 🟧 MEDIUM / 🟥 LOW / ⬛ VERY LOW` — pair with WEP probability term (e.g., "likely / about even / unlikely") per political-style-guide.md

🧭 Scenario Quadrant

quadrantChart
    title Scenario Probability × Impact (y-coordinate ≈ probability; x-coordinate ≈ relative impact)
    x-axis Low Impact --> High Impact
    y-axis Low Probability --> High Probability
    quadrant-1 Plan For
    quadrant-2 Prepare Resilience
    quadrant-3 Monitor
    quadrant-4 Consider Opportunistically
    "🟢 Base: Coalition holds (40%)": [0.55, 0.40]
    "🟡 Upside: Opposition wins cleanly (25%)": [0.75, 0.25]
    "🟠 Downside: Hung result (25%)": [0.80, 0.25]
    "🔴 Wildcard: Mid-cycle crisis (10%)": [0.90, 0.10]

Illustrative example — replace before publishing. The quadrant, the four scenarios below, every probability, every named actor/committee/dok_id, every trigger condition, and every early-warning signal are worked-example values from a prior reference run. Replace them with run-specific scenario content (or explicitly reuse and re-justify them) before committing this file.

🟢 Scenario A — Base Case (probability 40 %)

Field	Value
Name	Base — Coalition holds with SD confidence & supply
Probability	40 % (confidence 🟩 HIGH)
Headline	Kristersson government retains office with modified mandate
Trigger conditions	Coalition + SD sustain ≥ 47 % polling through August 2026; no crisis event
Early warning signals	(a) cost-of-living package lands within voter segments 1 & 2 by July; (b) no major KU scandal; (c) SD keeps confidence posture
Outcome on key dimensions	Budget continuity, justice agenda continues, climate pace moderated
Decision implication	Editorial: maintain standard coverage weighting; prepare for post-election budget continuity scenario

🟡 Scenario B — Upside (probability 25 %)

Field	Value
Name	Upside — S-led opposition wins outright
Probability	25 % (WEP: "unlikely" — confidence 🟧 MEDIUM); roughly level with Scenario C
Headline	Social Democrats return with C + MP partners
Trigger conditions	Opposition block polls ≥ 52 % by Aug 2026; ULA (unemployment-linked affordability) narrative dominates
Early warning signals	(a) Q2 2026 SIFO gap ≥ 6 points; (b) SCB AKU June unemployment > 8.6 %; (c) EU-Commission rebuke on fuel-tax cut
Outcome on key dimensions	Budget redirection to welfare; green-transition acceleration; migration policy recalibration
Decision implication	Editorial: prepare policy-pivot coverage; commission expert-panel content on transition continuity

🟠 Scenario C — Downside (probability 25 %)

Field	Value
Name	Downside — Hung parliament / protracted formation
Probability	25 % (WEP: "unlikely" — confidence 🟧 MEDIUM); roughly level with Scenario B
Headline	No bloc reaches 175 seats; multi-week government formation
Trigger conditions	No bloc > 48 % in final polls; SD shifts position during campaign
Early warning signals	(a) fragmented polling by late July; (b) leadership challenges in smaller parties; (c) late-campaign defections
Outcome on key dimensions	Interim government; budget via caretaker rules; institutional stress
Decision implication	Editorial: activate constitutional-crisis playbook; commission KU + Statsrätt analyses; boost capacity

🔴 Scenario D — Wildcard (probability 10 %)

Field	Value
Name	Wildcard — Mid-cycle crisis (scandal / external shock / health event)
Probability	10 % (WEP: "very unlikely" — confidence 🟥 LOW)
Headline	External event reshapes the race
Trigger conditions	One of: major KU reprimand, Riksbank crisis action, NATO escalation, public-health emergency
Early warning signals	(a) unusual opinion-poll volatility; (b) government-agency resignations; (c) regional escalations
Outcome on key dimensions	Unpredictable; likely short-term rally-around-the-flag then realignment
Decision implication	Editorial: pre-draft crisis explainers; maintain rapid-response editorial shift capacity

Probability check: 40 + 25 + 25 + 10 = 100 % ✅

🧩 Drivers & Dependencies

Driver	Current signal	Confidence	Scenarios affected
GDP growth trajectory (SCB + IMF WEO)	+0.82 % 2024, +1.8 % 2026 proj	🟦 VERY HIGH	A, B, C
SIFO/Novus polling gap	−4 pt government disadvantage Apr 2026	🟩 HIGH	A, B, C
SD confidence-supply posture	Stable through FiU48	🟩 HIGH	A, C
EU-Commission Green-Deal response	Awaited, 0–30 d horizon	🟧 MEDIUM	A, B
NATO/Ukraine situation	Active, escalation risk moderate	🟧 MEDIUM	D

🔮 Early-Warning Dashboard

graph TD
    W1["📅 2026-04-24<br/>FiU48 chamber vote"] --> A["🟢 Base holds<br/>if unified Ja"]
    W1 --> B["🟠 Downside<br/>if coalition Avstår"]
    W2["📅 2026-06-30<br/>Q2 SIFO"] --> A
    W2 --> B
    W3["📅 2026-07-15<br/>Pump-price effect"] --> A
    W4["📅 2026-08-15<br/>Final-push polling"] --> A
    W4 --> B
    W4 --> C["🔴 Hung parliament<br/>fragmentation"]

    style W1 fill:#FF9800,color:#FFFFFF
    style W2 fill:#FFC107,color:#000000
    style W3 fill:#FFC107,color:#000000
    style W4 fill:#D32F2F,color:#FFFFFF
    style A fill:#4CAF50,color:#FFFFFF
    style B fill:#FF9800,color:#FFFFFF
    style C fill:#D32F2F,color:#FFFFFF
``$

---

## 📘 \text{Decision} \text{Playbook}

| \text{Scenario} | \text{Action} 1 | \text{Action} 2 | \text{Action} 3 |
|----------|----------|----------|----------|
| \text{A} (\text{Base}) | \text{Maintain} \text{normal} \text{coverage} \text{cadence} | \text{Prepare} \text{post}-\text{election} \text{budget}-\text{continuity} \text{explainer} | \text{Track} \text{SD} \text{confidence}-\text{supply} \text{signals} |
| \text{B} (\text{Upside}) | \text{Commission} \text{policy}-\text{pivot} \text{explainer} \text{series} | \text{Stand} \text{up} \text{transition}-\text{team} \text{coverage} | \text{Prepare} \text{international}-\text{reaction} \text{pieces} |
| \text{C} (\text{Downside}) | \text{Activate} \text{constitutional}-\text{crisis} \text{playbook} | \text{Commission} \text{Statsr}ä\text{tt} / \text{KU} \text{analyses} | \text{Expand} \text{multilingual}-\text{explainer} \text{capacity} |
| \text{D} (\text{Wildcard}) | \text{Pre}-\text{draft} \text{crisis} \text{templates} | \text{Maintain} \text{real}-\text{time} \text{monitoring} \text{intensified} \text{by} 2 \times  | \text{Prepare} \text{coordinated} \text{EN} + \text{SV} \text{rapid} \text{response} |

---

## 🌳 \text{Horizon}-\text{Stratified} \text{Scenarios} *(\text{optional} — \text{emit} \text{only} \text{when} $horizonDays >= 90`)*

> **📌 When to render this block.** Triggered by the run's `horizonDays` value resolved from [`analysis/article-types.json`](../article-types.json) via [`scripts/horizon-context.ts`](../../scripts/horizon-context.ts):
> - `horizonDays < 90` (today / week-ahead / month-ahead) → **omit this block entirely**; the default §"Scenario Set" above stands alone.
> - `horizonDays >= 90` (`quarter-ahead`) → render the **4 base scenarios** sub-tree (Optimistic / Base / Pessimistic / Disruptive — these are the long-horizon canonical names and map to §"Scenario Set" Scenario A–D as **Base ⇄ A**, **Upside ⇄ Optimistic ⇄ B**, **Downside ⇄ Pessimistic ⇄ C**, **Wildcard ⇄ Disruptive ⇄ D**).
> - `horizonDays >= 365` (`year-ahead`) → also render the **wildcard sub-tree** with `longHorizonRules.wildcardCount` entries from [`analysis/article-types.json`](../article-types.json) (currently **5** for `year-ahead` / `election-cycle`), each linked to a wildcard in [`wildcards-blackswans.md`](wildcards-blackswans.md).
> - `horizonDays >= 1460` (`election-cycle`) → also render `longHorizonRules.scenarioBranchesPerScenario` governing-coalition branches per base scenario (currently **3** → 12 leaves total).
>
> Naming convention — every node carries:
> - `horizonClass` — one of `T+90` / `T+365` / `T+1460`
> - WEP confidence term that **degrades with horizon** per [`ext/long-horizon-forecasting.md` §1](../../.github/prompts/ext/long-horizon-forecasting.md)
> - cross-link to the matching band in [`forward-indicators.md`](forward-indicators.md)
> - `counterfactual` flag — mandatory for `cycle`, optional otherwise (counterfactual paragraphs themselves live in [`devils-advocate.md`](devils-advocate.md))
>
> **Probability discipline.** Probabilities at every level sum to 100 %. Sibling base scenarios sum to 100 %; wildcards form a separate set summing to 100 % among themselves; coalition branches under each base scenario sum to 100 %.
>
> The illustrative IDs and probabilities below mirror the worked example in §"Scenario Set" — replace before publishing.

### 🌲 Tree summary table

| Scenario ID | Parent | `horizonClass` | Branch | Probability | WEP (band-degraded) | Confidence | `forward-indicators.md` band | Counterfactual flag |
|-------------|--------|:--------------:|--------|:-----------:|---------------------|:----------:|------------------------------|:-------------------:|
| `SCN-Q-OPT` | — | `T+90` | Optimistic — coalition consolidates (≡ §Scenario Set "B / Upside") | 25 % | likely [horizon:quarter] | 🟩 HIGH | `quarter` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Q-BASE` | — | `T+90` | Base — status-quo continuity (≡ §Scenario Set "A / Base") | 40 % | likely [horizon:quarter] | 🟩 HIGH | `quarter` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Q-PESS` | — | `T+90` | Pessimistic — coalition stress (≡ §Scenario Set "C / Downside") | 25 % | roughly even [horizon:quarter] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `quarter` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Q-DISRUPT` | — | `T+90` | Disruptive — exogenous shock (≡ §Scenario Set "D / Wildcard") | 10 % | unlikely [horizon:quarter] | 🟥 LOW | `quarter` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Y-WILD-1` | — | `T+365` | Wildcard 1 — KU/scandal cascade | 30 % *(of wildcard set)* | roughly even [horizon:year] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `year` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Y-WILD-2` | — | `T+365` | Wildcard 2 — external security shock | 25 % *(of wildcard set)* | unlikely [horizon:year] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `year` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Y-WILD-3` | — | `T+365` | Wildcard 3 — economic dislocation | 20 % *(of wildcard set)* | unlikely [horizon:year] | 🟥 LOW | `year` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Y-WILD-4` | — | `T+365` | Wildcard 4 — leadership / health event | 15 % *(of wildcard set)* | unlikely [horizon:year] | 🟥 LOW | `year` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-Y-WILD-5` | — | `T+365` | Wildcard 5 — institutional / KU constitutional shock | 10 % *(of wildcard set)* | very unlikely [horizon:year] | 🟥 LOW | `year` | ⬜ optional |
| `SCN-C-OPT` | — | `T+1460` | Cycle base — Optimistic (≡ §Scenario Set B / Upside, cycle-aged) | 25 % *(of base set)* | roughly even [horizon:cycle] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-BASE` | — | `T+1460` | Cycle base — Base (≡ §Scenario Set A / Base, cycle-aged) | 40 % *(of base set)* | roughly even [horizon:cycle] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-PESS` | — | `T+1460` | Cycle base — Pessimistic (≡ §Scenario Set C / Downside, cycle-aged) | 25 % *(of base set)* | unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-DISRUPT` | — | `T+1460` | Cycle base — Disruptive (≡ §Scenario Set D / Wildcard, cycle-aged) | 10 % *(of base set)* | very unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-OPT-A` | `SCN-C-OPT` | `T+1460` | Coalition A — same-bloc continuity | 50 % *(of OPT branches)* | roughly even [horizon:cycle] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-OPT-B` | `SCN-C-OPT` | `T+1460` | Coalition B — narrowed bloc + SD | 35 % *(of OPT branches)* | unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-OPT-C` | `SCN-C-OPT` | `T+1460` | Coalition C — minority + supply | 15 % *(of OPT branches)* | very unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-BASE-A` | `SCN-C-BASE` | `T+1460` | Coalition A — Tidö-style continuity | 50 % | roughly even [horizon:cycle] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-BASE-B` | `SCN-C-BASE` | `T+1460` | Coalition B — S-led red-green-centre | 35 % | roughly even [horizon:cycle] | 🟧 MEDIUM | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-BASE-C` | `SCN-C-BASE` | `T+1460` | Coalition C — grand coalition / caretaker | 15 % | unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-PESS-A` | `SCN-C-PESS` | `T+1460` | Coalition A — fragmented right | 40 % | unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-PESS-B` | `SCN-C-PESS` | `T+1460` | Coalition B — protracted formation | 35 % | unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-PESS-C` | `SCN-C-PESS` | `T+1460` | Coalition C — snap re-election | 25 % | very unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-DISRUPT-A` | `SCN-C-DISRUPT` | `T+1460` | Coalition A — emergency unity government | 50 % | very unlikely [horizon:cycle] | 🟥 LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-DISRUPT-B` | `SCN-C-DISRUPT` | `T+1460` | Coalition B — populist realignment | 30 % | very unlikely [horizon:cycle] | ⬛ VERY LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |
| `SCN-C-DISRUPT-C` | `SCN-C-DISRUPT` | `T+1460` | Coalition C — institutional crisis | 20 % | very unlikely [horizon:cycle] | ⬛ VERY LOW | `cycle` | ✅ mandatory |

> [!IMPORTANT]
> **Composition rule.** When `horizonDays >= 1460`, the four base scenarios `SCN-C-OPT` / `SCN-C-BASE` / `SCN-C-PESS` / `SCN-C-DISRUPT` reuse the probabilities from the §"Scenario Set" base table. Coalition-branch probabilities under each base scenario sum to 100 % and **do not** redistribute the parent's probability — they refine it conditionally on that base scenario being realised. Cross-validate every leaf against the matching band row in [`forward-indicators.md`](forward-indicators.md) before publishing; any leaf without a matching band signal is a Pass-2 rewrite trigger.

### 🌳 Tree visualisation

```mermaid
graph LR
    R["📅 horizonDays<br/>(from article-types.json)"] -->|< 90| OFF["⬜ skip horizon-stratified block<br/>default §Scenario Set stands alone"]
    R -->|≥ 90| Q["🧭 T+90 — quarter-ahead"]
    R -->|≥ 365| Y["🛰️ T+365 — year-ahead<br/>(also emits T+90)"]
    R -->|≥ 1460| C["🗳️ T+1460 — election-cycle<br/>(also emits T+90 + T+365)"]
    Q --> QO["🟢 Optimistic"]
    Q --> QB["🟢 Base"]
    Q --> QP["🟠 Pessimistic"]
    Q --> QD["🔴 Disruptive"]
    Y --> YW1["🔮 Wildcard 1<br/>→ wildcards-blackswans.md"]
    Y --> YW2["🔮 Wildcard 2<br/>→ wildcards-blackswans.md"]
    Y --> YW3["🔮 Wildcard 3<br/>→ wildcards-blackswans.md"]
    Y --> YW4["🔮 Wildcard 4<br/>→ wildcards-blackswans.md"]
    Y --> YW5["🔮 Wildcard 5<br/>→ wildcards-blackswans.md"]
    C --> CB1["🟢 Base × {A,B,C} coalitions"]
    C --> CB2["🟢 Optimistic × {A,B,C} coalitions"]
    C --> CB3["🟠 Pessimistic × {A,B,C} coalitions"]
    C --> CB4["🔴 Disruptive × {A,B,C} coalitions"]

    style R fill:#0A66C2,color:#FFFFFF
    style OFF fill:#9E9E9E,color:#FFFFFF
    style Q fill:#4CAF50,color:#FFFFFF
    style Y fill:#FF9800,color:#FFFFFF
    style C fill:#D32F2F,color:#FFFFFF

📜 WEP-band degradation rule (cross-link to `forward-indicators.md`)

`horizonClass`	Permitted top-end WEP (without ≥ 3 corroborated cycle-aged sources)	Counterfactual flag	`forward-indicators.md` band
`T+90` (quarter)	`likely` / `unlikely`	⬜ optional	`quarter`
`T+365` (year)	`roughly even` (corroboration unlocks `likely`)	⬜ optional	`year`
`T+1460` (cycle / coalition leaf)	`roughly even` floor; never `likely` / `very likely` without ≥ 3 cycle-aged sources	✅ mandatory	`cycle` / `election`

Every WEP term in this block carries a [horizon:<band>] inline tag (gate-checked by 05-analysis-gate.md §LH-1); every coalition leaf at T+1460 references at least one paragraph in devils-advocate.md by **Counterfactual N — <name>:** heading.

🔁 Update Cadence

Interval	Action
Weekly (Sunday)	Update probabilities from polling + macro signals
On-trigger (any W-signal)	Immediate rerun of affected scenarios + downstream analyses
Monthly	Full rewrite with pass-2 deep review

Document Control

Template path: /analysis/templates/scenario-analysis.md
Referenced by: ai-driven-analysis-guide.md § Step 5
Classification: Public
Next Review: 2026-07-21

✅ Pass-2 Self-Audit Checklist (v4.4 — required)

Purpose: AI-FIRST principle requires a Pass-2 read-back-and-improve. After producing this artifact in Pass 1, re-read it end-to-end and verify each item below. Document any remediation in methodology-reflection.md §"Pass-2 audit log". Any unchecked ❌ box at the end of Pass 2 forces a Pass-3 rewrite of the affected section.