Transcription: OpenAgents Episode 201 - Fracking Apple Silicon

Source: https://x.com/OpenAgentsInc/status/2008326849613476335 Wiki source: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/wiki/OpenAgentsInc/openagents/Video-Series.md Media title: OpenAgents - Episode 201: Fracking Apple Silicon We plan to connect millions of A... Upload date: 20260105 Transcription model: gpt-4o-transcribe-diarize Generated at: 2026-06-01T02:59:47Z

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[00:00] Christopher David: The end of cloud inference?

[00:03] Christopher David: Maybe.

[00:05] Christopher David: People just remember,

[00:06] Christopher David: just remember that when people around Teapot, AI Twitter,

[00:12] Christopher David: days or weeks from now, talk about how cool the foundation model's API is from Apple,

[00:17] Christopher David: that you heard it here first,

[00:19] Christopher David: okay?

[00:19] Christopher David: For some reason, all of you are sleeping on it.

[00:23] Christopher David: Fine,

[00:23] Christopher David: good for me.

[00:25] Christopher David: But Apple has put out amazing new primitives for app devs, rivaling and in some cases exceeding the Vercel AI SDK in my own experience and what I can tell of its potential.

[00:38] Christopher David: Massively, massively impressed by it.

[00:41] Christopher David: And it seems to be working fine.

[00:43] Christopher David: This is the first ever that I've seen agentic search.

[00:48] Christopher David: through a code base, grep, and all that stuff using tool calls.

[00:53] Christopher David: You can run it on device.

[00:56] Christopher David: I have it hooked up because we're doing a desktop mobile sync. I just run it on the M2 chip and then stream it over WebSockets to my mobile device for controlling QuadCode. But we're going to be supplementing QuadCode and Codex with the on device.

[01:13] Christopher David: Model.

[01:15] Christopher David: Which got me thinking.

[01:18] Christopher David: Hey chat GPT.

[01:21] Christopher David: What percentage of AI workloads in the next five years can or will run on Apple Silicon give me a range of possibilities and explore the ramifications for open AI,

[01:32] Christopher David: NVIDIA, and other major players if certain percentages of AI workloads move from cloud to the edge.

[01:38] Christopher David: So I found this at chat GPT Pro.

[01:41] Christopher David: which can search the internet for source and stuff like that. I also fed in recent tweets and analysis,

[01:46] Christopher David: a little bit of this, a little bit of that,

[01:48] Christopher David: Chris Pake's essay,

[01:49] Christopher David: and I'm going to share this link in the tweet below this. You'll see it.

[01:55] Christopher David: Summaries, blah,

[01:55] Christopher David: blah, blah.

[01:56] Christopher David: I've got a one-liner down here.

[01:57] Christopher David: If the next five years play out as current vectors suggest,

[02:01] Christopher David: Apple Silicon could end up running 15-25% of the world's AI inference by 2030 with a credible 7-31% total range.

[02:10] Christopher David: It gave like a stretch amount earlier of 35% also.

[02:14] Christopher David: And that swing is large enough to reshape GPU demand,

[02:17] Christopher David: API business models,

[02:18] Christopher David: and who captures the economics of everyday AI.

[02:26] Christopher David: And then I have to do a little bit of math about like what is the actual market cap implications of all that.

[02:32] Christopher David: Is it correct to call this a trillion dollar question?

[02:35] Christopher David: Yeah, yeah, easily a trillion dollar swing.

[02:37] Christopher David: Oops.

[02:39] Christopher David: Thumbs up.

[02:42] Christopher David: And what does it say up here for being able to tell if it's on track to being on the high end of that 70 to 30 percent?

[02:54] Christopher David: What to watch for.

[02:55] Christopher David: What would have to be true for the high scenario?

[02:57] Christopher David: Small, capable models. It's already got one of these. The one on there is, you know, like equivalent of 4B.

[03:05] Christopher David: I'll skip two for a second.

[03:06] Christopher David: PCC scale out. The sort of like central cloud that things can elevate to if you want a more powerful model. Hardware cadence. Okay.

[03:14] Christopher David: Now I don't have much control over 1, 3,

[03:16] Christopher David: and 4 there.

[03:17] Christopher David: Number two, however.

[03:19] Christopher David: Developer adoption of Apple's foundation models plus MLX is broad.

[03:25] Christopher David: None of you people have been talking about this at all.

[03:28] Christopher David: You didn't know, I guess.

[03:30] Christopher David: You're waiting for me to make a video about it. Is that right?

[03:33] Christopher David: Okay.

[03:34] Christopher David: Well,

[03:35] Christopher David: we're going to continue doing what we're doing, which is putting out open source releases on our GitHub.

[03:42] Christopher David: We're going to continue building in public,

[03:44] Christopher David: we're going to continue making videos,

[03:46] Christopher David: and I'm going to chronicle for you over the next few videos over hopefully the next week or so what percentage of our own workload as I'm focusing on coding

[04:01] Christopher David: agents, specifically letting you manage the top coding agents,

[04:07] Christopher David: currently cloud coding codecs from your phone.

[04:11] Christopher David: It's like what percentage of our own coding agent workload is in the cloud?

[04:16] Christopher David: Well, right now it's 100%. But with version 0.3 of our Tricoder app in a few days,

[04:22] Christopher David: that's going to drop from 100% to,

[04:24] Christopher David: I don't know,

[04:24] Christopher David: 95%. And in the beginning, we're just going to be using the local model for a little bit of orchestration.

[04:29] Christopher David: We're generating title summaries. But like 100 is going to drop to 95 and then it might keep dropping. What other things can we strip out?

[04:41] Christopher David: and go local.

[04:43] Christopher David: Can we bring that down to 50%? 20%? At what point does that start having broader ramifications?

[04:54] Christopher David: So stay tuned.

[04:55] Christopher David: If you're a developer who wants to leverage the best coding agents from your phone,

[05:02] Christopher David: go sign up for our test flight.

[05:03] Christopher David: This is going to be iOS only for probably the foreseeable future,

[05:06] Christopher David: next month or so at least.

[05:08] Christopher David: Go sign up if you're an angel investor or an early-stage VC fund and you want exposure to this thesis My DMS are open

[05:17] Christopher David: Message me sooner than later.

[05:18] Christopher David: I recommend see ya

[05:20] Christopher David: Agents are hungry for compute. And while it would be nice to have our own gigawatt data center in Texas, you know we'll have one eventually.

[05:28] Christopher David: Stargate is OpenAI's infrastructure program,

[05:30] Christopher David: their flagship campus in Abilene has a 1.2 gigawatts, I guess that'll be done this year. Congratulations and welcome to Texas by the way,

[05:37] Christopher David: but I'm more interested in this five and a half gigawatts over here.

[05:43] Christopher David: 110 million max huh?

[05:44] Christopher David: So this is infrastructure right here we don't need to pay for.

[05:48] Christopher David: To build anyway. We're just gonna pay to rent it. To rent pay you for your spare compute. So this is point number one from our uh big picture episode two hundred. We said hey you, you've got spare compute. Can we buy it from you? Or if not us, someone else in this global marketplace we let you connect that to.

[06:13] Christopher David: So that's what we're doing.

[06:15] Christopher David: We already demonstrated the technology behind this in episode 178, how you click a button and make your compute available over an open protocol that anybody can buy and pay you Bitcoin.

[06:29] Christopher David: Our example here used Olama instead of on-device inference. We will be...

[06:38] Christopher David: uh adding olama and other support for other model types and hardware types so everyone will be able to sell spare compute we're going to start with um apple silicon partly because there's just no download you don't have to download the models built into your computer so it's very easy to like run a script go online and just like instantly have bitcoin streaming so that's what we're going to launch on wednesday uh the name of the product is called pylon

[07:04] Christopher David: We did an earlier version of this earlier this year,

[07:06] Christopher David: but basically it's node software that runs on your computer that makes your computer,

[07:10] Christopher David: your compute available on this open market with a built-in Bitcoin wallet so you just get money streamed to you.

[07:18] Christopher David: And we

[07:22] Christopher David: launched this before, so we kind of know what we're doing. We had 300-ish people online at the same time renting or selling their compute.

[07:32] Christopher David: And we were the only buyer,

[07:34] Christopher David: really.

[07:34] Christopher David: This was at the time back in 2023,

[07:37] Christopher David: there was no agents, there was no MCPs, no tool calling,

[07:42] Christopher David: very early using horrible open models.

[07:46] Christopher David: But we validated the idea and the tech works.

[07:49] Christopher David: So we're kind of doing an updated version of this now. But we phased this out and we predicted that the future sort of buyers here are going to be agents,

[07:59] Christopher David: agents of the future.

[08:01] Christopher David: And when agents get good enough, that'll be the right time to relaunch this. Well, they are now good enough.

[08:09] Christopher David: Part of why now is particularly the perfect time, and we'll get into more of this in the next video.

[08:16] Christopher David: There's a new paper that came out in the last couple days or month, recursive language models,

[08:21] Christopher David: which this other lab says is going to be the paradigm of 2026.

[08:25] Christopher David: And part of this model is that there's this like...

[08:29] Christopher David: desire to have these very modular small micro jobs stand out it's basically the absolute perfect application for the type of compute that we're talking about so we think there's going to be a healthy buy side demand for all of this so we'll get into that more in the next video I just want to kind of step through a little bit of this analogy here

[08:52] Speaker B: Oh.

[08:52] Christopher David: I want to conclude by defining these three terms you'll hear us use because the parallel to oil exploration is pretty clear here.

[09:00] Christopher David: Stranded, fragging, wildcatter. Okay,

[09:02] Christopher David: stranded energy.

[09:03] Christopher David: Energy that exists but can't be sold at the right price or time because it lacks a market path.

[09:08] Christopher David: No pipeline or transmission,

[09:09] Christopher David: no storage,

[09:10] Christopher David: no offtake contract where the transaction costs exceed the value.

[09:13] Christopher David: Follow Daniel Batten on Twitter, by the way, for examples of how Bitcoiners generally are great at monetizing stranded energy.

[09:19] Christopher David: energy um anyways the parallel there to compute compute capacity that exists but can't be economically traded because it lacks one or more of discovery buyers can't find it packaging no standard job or api product trust no verification reputation settlement can't pay for tiny work units operability no observability no replay no receipts in one line stranded means it's a real research missing market plumbing

[09:45] Christopher David: 110 million max.

[09:46] Christopher David: Yes.

[09:47] Christopher David: Two,

[09:47] Christopher David: fracking.

[09:49] Christopher David: Energy.

[09:50] Christopher David: A set of techniques that unlock hydrocarbons trapped in low permeability rock by changing flow dynamics,

[09:55] Christopher David: pressure and permeability,

[09:56] Christopher David: creating a new economically recoverable supply.

[10:00] Christopher David: Compute.

[10:01] Christopher David: Compute fracking.

[10:02] Christopher David: A set of protocols and products that unlock compute trapped behind distribution and coordination barriers.

[10:08] Christopher David: By changing market flow dynamics, turning idle devices into routable paid verifiable supply.

[10:13] Christopher David: Our fracking fluid equivalent is streaming money,

[10:18] Christopher David: bitcoin and lightning plus receipts plus routing.

[10:20] Christopher David: See our episode 94 or something called streaming money.

[10:24] Christopher David: Money is the incentive that makes the supply show up and stay online.

[10:27] Christopher David: Micropayments make tiny work units worth selling.

[10:29] Christopher David: Receipts make spend auditable and procurable.

[10:32] Christopher David: Budgets bound risk and enable autonomy.

[10:35] Christopher David: Routing and reputation turn chaos into a market.

[10:37] Christopher David: In one line,

[10:38] Christopher David: fracking is inject the missing infrastructure so the resource flows into the market.

[10:43] Christopher David: Imagine tapping into the five and a half gigawatts of compute that's just sitting there.

[10:48] Christopher David: Not to mention all the other edge inference.

[10:51] Christopher David: Oof.

[10:53] Christopher David: Wildcatter. My friends, we are building an army of Wildcatters here.

[10:57] Christopher David: Check this out.

[10:59] Christopher David: Energy. An operator who drills in unproven territory,

[11:02] Christopher David: high uncertainty,

[11:03] Christopher David: high upside before reserves are fully proven. They take exploration and operational risk early.

[11:09] Christopher David: Compute Wildcatters.

[11:11] Christopher David: An early provider who brings unproven or stranded compute online as market supply before demand.

[11:17] Christopher David: Pricing and trust are fully established.

[11:20] Christopher David: Taking risk on demand volatility,

[11:22] Christopher David: reliability and churn,

[11:23] Christopher David: verification and reputation building,

[11:25] Christopher David: payout and ops overhead.

[11:27] Christopher David: Examples.

[11:28] Christopher David: A household or office turning Macs into a bundle land provider.

[11:32] Christopher David: A prosumer running pylon provider mode overnight.

[11:35] Christopher David: A miner deploying a small GPU pod alongside ASICs to monetize curtailment windows.

[11:40] Christopher David: Why wildcatters matter.

[11:42] Christopher David: They prove economics, create early liquidity and generate the first trust and reputation signals.

[11:47] Christopher David: Wildcatters the first supplier willing to take uncertainty to unlock a new market and um if you ask any of the people who ran nodes during our GP-Topia you know maybe not all of them, but a whole bunch of them got paid some Bitcoin. So that's nice right? T_L_D_R_ stranded resource exists market access doesn't. Fracking add the fluid incentives plus settlement plus routing plus trust, and make it flow. Wildcatter early adopter who takes risk first and earns upside when the market

[12:16] @: you

[12:16] Christopher David: The market becomes real.

[12:16] Christopher David: So folks,

[12:17] Christopher David: we've built this already.

[12:18] Christopher David: We're relaunching this in two days.

[12:21] Christopher David: Just so you know a little something about me,

[12:23] Christopher David: my grandfather worked in the oil fields of the Permian Basin and all across Texas,

[12:30] Christopher David: Louisiana.

[12:30] Christopher David: He was a geologist for Shell and he mapped out the fields and helped them discover, I think, their largest coal reserve at the time, something like that. So,

[12:40] Christopher David: um...

[12:42] Christopher David: I'm a Texan, and we're going to unlock this resource and share it broadly and make a whole bunch of money for us and our agents,

[12:48] Christopher David: okay?

[12:49] Christopher David: See you soon.