Papers with respect to NLP-based Financial Forecasting

June 4, 2021 · View on GitHub

Stock Price Movement Predicion

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Ding et al.(2014)Using Structured Events to Predict Stock Price Movement: An Empirical Investigation(1) S&P 500 from Yahoo!Finance, (2) Reuters and Bloomberg Their Open-sourced dataset (404)Linear model, deep NNPredicting S&P500 index: Acc: 59% MCC: 0.1683 Individual stock (Walmart) prediction: Acc: 70% MCC: 0.4679-/10/2006- -/11/2013Extract events from news based on OpenIE, Figure out the relation between financial events and stock marketEMNLP-14
Ding et al.(2015)Deep Learning for Event-Driven Stock Prediction(1) S&P 500 from Yahoo!Finance,(2)Reuters and Bloomberg (404)CNNS&P500 index: Acc: 64.21%, MCC: 0.40. Individual stock: Acc: 65.48%, MCC: 0.4101/10/2006-21/11/2013Events are extracted from news text.Predict uptrend and downtrend probability based on events.IJCAI-2015
Yang et al.(2018)Explainable Text-Driven Neural Network for Stock PredictionSame as Ding et al. 2015BiGRU+Multi-level AttentionAccuracy, MCC-/10/2006- -/11/2013Accuracy: 0.62-0.74 varing from three companiesCCIS-18 (Best Paper)
Du and Ishii(2020)Stock Embeddings Acquired from News Articles and Price History, and an Application to Portfolio OptimizationWSJ/Reuters+Bloomberg NewsBiGRUAccuracy, MCC2000-20152.80x/1.37x annual portfolio gainACL-20
Duan et al.(2018)/(2019)Deep Learning for Event-Driven Stock PredictionCode&Data (Reuters)Sentence-level Bi-LSTMCumulative Abnormal Return (CAR)2006-2015Target-Specific Representations of Financial News DocumentsCoLING-18/TASLP
Merello(2018)Investigating Timing and Impact of News on the Stock MarketFinancial NewsAttention model + LSTM + DenseAccuracy, MCC-/08/2017- -/03/2018Accuracy 62.8%, MCC 0.18ICDM Workshops 2018
Li et al.(2020)Modeling the Stock Relation with Graph Network for Overnight Stock Movement PredictionStocks within TPX500 and TPX100 index from Reuters Financial NewsLSTM, relational graph convolutional network (LSTM-RGCN)Accuracy01/01/2013- 28/09/2018Since using the relational graph convolutional network, the proposed network is able to predict the movement of stocks that is not directly associated with newsIJCAI-2020
Dang et al.(2020)“The Squawk Bot”∗: Joint Learning of Time Series and Text Data Modalities for Automated Financial Information FilteringStock time series: Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) collected from Yahoo!Finance (open-sourced)LSTMPrecision, Recall-/-/2006- -/-/2013Propose MSIN that is able to discover- ing relevant documents in association with a given time seriesIJCAI-2020
Ding et al.(2020)Hierarchical Multi-Scale Gaussian Transformer for Stock Movement PredictionDaily quote data of all 3243 stocks in NASDAQ, 15-min quote data of 500 CSI-500 component stocks (NOT open source)Gaussian Transformer which is an efficient architecture of RNN/CNNAccuracy01/07/2010- 01/07/2019, 01/12/2015- 01/12-2019Apply Gaussian Transformer model on stock movement prediction, in which attention mechanism can help to capture extremely long-term dependencies of finance time series.IJCAI-2020
Liu et al.(2020)Multi-scale Two-way Deep Neural Network for Stock Trend PredictionFI-2010, CSI-2016 (NOT open source)Deep NN (XGB, Recurrent CNNAccuracy, F1 score2010, 2016Proposed a novel multi-scale model which achieves state-of-the-art performance on the benchmark dataset.IJCAI-2020
Feng et al.(2019)Enhancing Stock Movement Prediction with Adversarial Training(1)88 high-trade-volume-stocks in NASDAQ and NYSE (Xu and Cohen, 2018) (2)50 stocks in U.S. market, CodeLSTM, attention modelOn dataset 1: Acc: 57.2%, MCC: 0.1483. On dataset 2: Acc: 53.05%, MCC: 0.0523.01/01/2014-01/01/2016, 01/01/2007-01/01/2016Regard features extracted from historical price as stochastic variables and fix the overfitting problem on training datasetIJCAI-2019
Si et al.(2013)Exploiting Topic based Twitter Sentiment for Stock Prediction(1)Twitter REST API, (2)S&P100 from Yahoo FinanceDirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) model, Vector auto-regressionAccuracy: 68%02/11/2012-07/01/2013Topic-based time series sentiment analysis. Use historical index data and the topic-based sentiment time series to predict stock movement.ACL-2013
Hu et al.(2019)Listening to Chaotic Whispers: A Deep Learning Framework for News-oriented Stock Trend Prediction1)2527 Chinese stocks (2)1,271,442 economic news from http: //www.eastmoney.com/ and http: //finance.sina.com.cn/Attention model, NNAcc: 48% (tri-label classification problem) Gained 60% annualized return-/-/2014- -/-/2017They pointed out three principles for news-oriented stock trend prediction, including sequential context dependency, di- verse influence and effective and efficient learning, by imitating the learning process of human.WSDM-19
Xu and Cohen(2018)Stock Movement Prediction from Tweets and Historical Prices(1)88 high-trade-volume-stocks in NASDAQ and NYSE (2) Twitter (also in the link above)Attention model, NNAcc: 58.23% MCC: 0.0801/01/2014-01/01/2016Deep generative approach for stock movement, introduce a temporal auxiliaryACL-18
Chen & Wei(2018)Incorporating Corporation Relationship via Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for Stock Price PredictionCSI300 company from a public API tushareGraph convolutional network, LSTMAcc: 57.98%29/04/1027- 31/12/2017Predict the price movement in day “t” based on historical price from day “t-7” to “t-1”CIKM 2018
Kim et al.(2019)HATS: A Hierarchical Graph Attention Network for Stock Movement Prediction(1) 431 companies of S&P500 from Yahoo Finance, (2) Corporate relational data from Wikidata. Dataset, CodeGraph network, attention model, LSTMIndividual stock prediction: (tri-label), Acc: 39%, F1:0.32, Average daily return: 0.09608/02/2013- 17/06/2019leverage corporate relational data and investigate different types of relation (75).Select useful relations automatically by NN. Make prediction through historical price data and correlation information.
Ye et al.(2020)Multi-Graph Convolutional Network for Relationship-Driven Stock Movement PredictionCSI300 and CSI500 company from a public API tushareGraph convolutional network, Gated recurrent unitsCSI300L Acc:0.5754, F1:0.6981, MCC: 0.2171. CSI500: Acc: 0.5885, F1: 0.7199, MCC: 0.237701/06/2015- 05/12/2019The idea of this paper is similar with Kim et al. (2019). Differences: (1) predict market index or individual stock price (2) the binary class (3) how to calculate the correlation
Keynes (1937)The General Theory of Employment\\\\The literature of stock market prediction was initiated by this paper.Eco
Fama (1965)The behavior of stock-market prices.\\\\Establish the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)Eco
Bondt and Thaler (1985)Does the Stock Market Overreact?CRSP monthly return data from NYSE\Cumulative Average Residuals-/01/1926- -/12/1982Empirically prove that the stock price movement is predictableEco
Jegadeesh (1990)Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security ReturnsCRSP monthly return dataRegression modelStrong negative/positive serial correlation-/-/1929- -/-/1982Empirically prove that the stock price movement is predictableEco
Culter et al. (1998)What moves stock prices?Annual return of S&P stock price seriesRegression modelR2-/-/1871- -/-/1986one of the first papers to investigate the relationship between news coverage and stock prices, since which empirical text analysis technology has been widely used across numerous disciplinesEco
Brown and Cliff (2004)Investor sentiment and the near-term stock marketNYSEKalmam filter, Vector AutoregressionR2-/03/1965- -/12/1998used sentiment surveys from companies and signal extraction techniques to derive investor sentiment from market indicatorsEco
Ito et al. (2017)Development of sentiment indicators using both unlabeled and labeled postsYahoo Finance bulletin boardsLogistic RegressionAccuracy, F1 score, Pearson Correlation18/11/2014- 30/06/2016Propose a method for extracting sentiment indicators using unlabeled posts. Develop a sentiment indicator.2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI)
Ito et al. (2017)Development of an Interpretable Neural Network Model for Creation of Polarity Concept Dictionaries1. Financial news of companies from Tokyo Stock Exchange from Reuters 2. Yahoo Finance BoardDeep Neural NetworkF1 score-/01/2013- -/12/2015Develop an interpretable NN to extract the sentiment polarity score from documents. And proposed a concept dictionary.2017 ICDM Workshop
Ito et al. (2016)Polarity propagation of financial terms for market trend analyses using news articles1. Financial news of companies from Tokyo Stock Exchange from Reuters 2. Yahoo Finance BoardDeep Neural Network, SVMPrecision, recall, f1 score-/01/2014- -/12/2014proposed a new text-mining method for giving a polarity score to a new word2016 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC)

Stock Return Forecasting

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Yang et al. (2019)Leveraging BERT to Improve the FEARS Index for Stock ForecastingData (Google Search Trend)BERT+Online TrainingMSEWeekly Data from 2004 to 2015Combining the FEAR index (calculated by the google search volumn) with the semantic information (key words embedding)FinNLP-2019
Kelly (2018)Estimating the impact of domain-specific news sentiment on financial assetsDow Jones Industrial Average and West Texas Intermediate crude oilRolling window regression,Vector autoregressionStock market: AR increased by 4.2%, MD decreased by 4.4%, Crude oil market: AR increased by 25.6%, MD decreased by 28.8%18/02/1998-31/07/2015present a method and implementation that analyses the content of news using multiple dictionaries that accounts for the specific use of terminology in a given domainKnowledge-Based Systems
Qin et al. (2017)A Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Network for Time Series Prediction(1) SML 2010, (2)NASDAQ 100 stockLSTM, attention modelOn NASDAQ dataset, MAE 0.21, MAPE 0.43, RMSE 0.3126/07/2016- 22/12/2016Stage1: attention-based feature extraction. Stage2: temporal attention mechanism to select relevant hidden states.IJCAI-2017
Huang et al. (2017)Forecasting stock returns in good and bad times: The role of market states\\\\The goal in this paper is to show that stock returns are predictable in good times, rather than how to achieve the maximum predictabilityEco
Yuan (2015)Market-wide attention, trading, and stock returnsTrim Tabs Financial\\-/02/1998- -/12-2005analyze the ability of record-breaking events for the Dow index and front-page articles about the stock market to predict trading patterns and market returnsEco
Oliveira et al. (2013)Some Experiments on Modeling Stock Market Behavior Using Investor Sentiment Analysis and Posting Volume from Twitter(1)All daily tweets from Twitter,(2)Stock market daily variables from Reuters (denied to access)Regression modelReturns: R2 0.2, Trading volume: R2 0.41, Volatility: R2 0.6724/12/2012- 08/02/2013Confirm the return is unpredictable based on the sentiment indicator.But they think trading volume and volatility are relevant to the tweets volume.WIMS 2013
Schumaker and Chen (2009)Textual Analysis of Stock Market Prediction Using Breaking Financial News: The AZFinText System(1) S&P 500 (2) 9211 financial news articles from Yahoo FinanceSVMDirectional accuracy: 57%, MSE: 0.04216, Simulated trading: 2.06% return26/10/2005- 28/11/2005They show that the model containing both article terms and stock price at the time of article release had the best performanceACM Transactions on Information Systems
Duan et al. (2018)Learning Target-Specific Representations of Financial News Documents For Cumulative Abnormal Return PredictionReutersNeural attention, Bi-directional LSTMAUC09/2006-12/2015Target-specific document representation model which disregards noise. Uses full news article for stock prediction.COLING-2018

Portfolio Management

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Malandri(2018)Public Mood–Driven Asset Allocation: the Importance of Financial Sentiment in Portfolio ManagementNYSE companiesRandom forest classifier, Multi-layer Perceptron, LSTMTrading simulation24/01/2012-02/06/2017Discuss how public mood affect portfolio managementCognitive Computation
Frank Z. X. (2018)Intelligent Asset Allocation via Market Sentiment ViewsStockTwitsRecurrent Neural NetworkTrading simulation of one period portfolio asset allocation (5 stocks)08/14/2017-16/11/2017A novel neural network design, built upon an ensemble of evolving clustering and long short-term memory, is used to formalize sentiment information into market views.These views are later integrated into modern portfolio theory through a Bayesian approach.IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine
Picasso(2019)Technical analysis and sentiment embeddings for market trend predictionNASDAQ 100 companiesRF, SVM, feed forward NNTrading simulation (20 stocks)03/07/2017-14/06/2018Maximum 85.2% Annualized ReturnExpert Systems with Applications
Zhu et al. (2020)Online Portfolio Selection with Cardinality Constraint and Transaction Costs based on Contextual BanditNew York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE), S&P500 and Dow Jones 30 composite stocks (DJIA). (open source)Asset combination selection algorithm: Lazy Exp4. Allocation algorithm: Transaction Costs-aware Gradient Projection (TCGP)Maximum Drawdown and Cumulative Return on all four datasets03/06/1962-31/12/1984, 04/01/1994- 31/12/1998, 14/01/2001- 14/01/2003, 11/02/2013- 07/02/2018Propose an online portfolio selection method taking the Cardinality Constrains and Transaction Costs into accountIJCAI-2020
Nakagawa et al. (2020)RM-CVaR: Regularized Multiple β-CVaR PortfolioFama and French (FF) dataset (select FF25 and FF48) (NOT open-sourced)Regularized Multiple β-CVaR portfolioAnnualized return increased by 7%, Maximum Drawdown decreased by 15%-/01/1989- -/12/2018Use Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as the risk measure (formulated by single β ) and raise a new method to tackle the problem that small change of β causes huge change of portfolio structureIJCAI-2020
Cai (2020)Vector Autoregressive Weighting Reversion Strategy for Online Portfolio SelectionNYSE_O, NYSE_N, DJIA, TSE (NOT open-sourced)Vector Autoregressive moving-average (VARMA)Cumulative Wealth03/07/1962- 30/06/2010To improve the performance of reversion based online portfolio selection strategyIJCAI-2020
Xu et al. (2020)Relation-Aware Transformer for Portfolio Policy LearningCrypto-A with 12 assets, Crypto-B with 37 assets, S&P-500 with 506 assetsSequential ModelCumulative return-/02/2013- -/11/2019Tackle the problem that current portfolio policies are not able to capture the 1) sequential patterns of assets price series, 2) price correlation among multiple assetsIJCAI-2020
Huang & Li (2020)A Two-level Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Ambiguous Mean-variance Portfolio Selection Problemexperimental work is done in MATLAB by the Monte Carlo simulations of returns from a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) as the underlying mixture distributionMean-Variance portfolio policy, Progressive Hedging Algorithm (PHA)The Two-Layer framework produces\Assume the statistics of assets’ returns are unknown to the investors, propose a portfolio management frameworkIJCAI-2020
Pun et al. (2020)Financial Thought Experiment: A GAN-based Approach to Vast Robust Portfolio SelectionAn empirical dataset on S&P 500 index (NOT open-sourced)Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), and a regression networkIn bearish market, GANr has the lowest annualized risk. In bullish market, GANr’s performance is similar with two benchmarks.01/12/2006-30/06/2009, 31/12/2015-29/12/2017Build an adversarial network to mimic the trading behaviors in the real-world, and results in a robust portfolio.IJCAI-2020
Lee et al. (2020)MAPS: Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning-based Portfolio Management System18 year’s data of 3000 US companies (list of companies from Russell 3000 index) (NOT open source)MLP encoder, Q-networkThe value of MAPS portfolio is twice as the other baseline models-/-/2012- -/-/2018Each agent stands for an investor. Propose a model that guides the agents act as diversely as possible while maximum their own returnsIJCAI-2020
Markowitz (1954)Portfolio Selection (unaccessible now)\\\\Introduce Mean-Variance Theory of portfolio managementEco
Kelly (1956)A New Interpretation of Information Rate.\\\\Capital Growth Theory.Eco
Cover (1991)UNIVERSAL PORTFOLIOS\\\\Propose universal portfolios algorithm. The universal portfolio algorithm is a portfolio selection algorithm from the field of machine learning and information theory. The algorithm learns adaptively from historical data and maximizes the log-optimal growth rate in the long run.Eco
Markowitz et al.(2000)Mean-variance analysis in portfolio choice and capital markets\\\\Introduce Mean-Variance Theory of portfolio managementEco

Trading Strategy Analysis

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Zhong et al. (2020)Data-Driven Market-Making via Model-Free LearningChicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)’s Globex electronic trading platform (NOT open source)Stochastic iterative method (Q- learning)Proposed Q-learning algorithm outperforms two benchmark algorithms and the firm’s trading strategy01/01/2019- 31/12/2019Study when a market-making firm should place orders to maximize their expected net profit, while also constraining riskEco
Lin & Beling (2020)An End-to-End Optimal Trade Execution Framework based on Proximal Policy OptimizationOne-year millisecond Trade and Quote (TAQ) data of 14 stocks (NOT open-sourced)Fully Connected Network, LSTMMean of Implementation Shortfall (IS), standard deviation of IS, and Gain-Loss Ratio (GLR)-/01/2018- -/12/2018Based on Limit Order Book (LOB) information such as bid or ask prices, make trading decision directly without manually attributesIJCAI-2020
Spooner & Savani (2020)Robust Market Making via Adversarial Reinforcement Learning\Adversarial Reinforcement LearningThe resulting performance shows an improvement in the Sharpe ratio of 0.27 and lower variance on terminal wealth\Use Adversarial Reinforcement Learning to product market making agentsIJCAI-2020
Poli et al. (2020)WATTNet: Learning to Trade FX via Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Representation of Highly Multivariate Time SeriesCollect 6 major NDF markets: US Dollar – Chinese Yuan, US Dollar – Indonesian Rupiah, US Dollar – Indian Rupee, US Dollar – Philippine Peso, US Dollar – Taiwan Dollar (NOT open-sourced)NN219.1 Return over Investment in USDCNY market, whereas LSTM model got 74.310/09/2013-17/06/2019Focus on non-deliverable forward (NDF) selection, which is a derivatives contract used in foreign ex- change (FX) tradingIJCAI-2020

Measuring Forecasting Skill

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Zong et al. (2020)Measuring Forecasting Skill from TextGeopolitical Forecasting Data, Earnings Call DataBERT-base\2014-2018They presented the first study of connections between people’s forecasting skill and language used to justify their predictions.ACL-2020

Interpretable Model

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Ito et al. (2020)Contextual Sentiment Neural Network for Document Sentiment Analysis.1.EcoRevs I and II. 2. Yahoo review 3. Sentiment 140Deep NN, Contextual Sentiment Neural Network (CSNN)Macro F1 score\To improve the interpretability of NN, they propose a novel initialization propagation (IP) learning to replace BP algorithm.Data Science and Engineering
Ito et al. (2020)SSNN: Sentiment Shift Neural Network1. EcoRevs I and II. 2. Yahoo review 3. Sentiment 140Sentiment Shift Neural NetworkMacro F1 score\Proposed a Joint Sentiment Propagation (JSP) learning to realize the interpretability of neural network layersProceedings of the 2020 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining
Ito et al. (2020)Word-Level Contextual Sentiment Analysis with Interpretability1. EcoRevs I and II. 2. Yahoo review 3. Sentiment 140Sentiment Interpretable Neural Network (SINN),Macro F1 score\Propose Lexical Initialization Learning to improve the interpretability of NN.Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Ito et al. (2019)CSNN: Contextual Sentiment Neural Network1. EcoRevs I and II. 2. Yahoo review 3. Sentiment 140Contextual Sentiment Neural Network (CSNN)Macro F1 score, Pearson Correlation Coefficient\To improve the interpretability of NN, they propose a novel initialization propagation (IP) learning to replace BP algorithm.2019 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM)
Nakagawa et al. (2019)Deep Recurrent Factor Model: Interpretable Non-Linear and Time-Varying Multi-Factor Model1. TOPIX 500 index from Tokyo Stock Exchange, 2. Nikkei Portfolio Master (NPM) and BloombergLSTM-LRPMAE, RMSE, annualized return, volatility, Sharpe ratio-/12/1990- -/03/2015By combining the Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) with LSTM, they improved the interpretability of model.AAAI-19 Workshop on Network Interpretability for Deep Learning

Discourse Analysis

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Ito et al. (2020)Learning Company Embeddings from Annual Reports for Fine-grained Industry Characterization1.10K reports of companies in US stock market(in English) 2.10K reports of companies in Tokyo Stock Exchange(in Japanese)BERT-base-uncased model (for English text), Japanese pre-trained model (for Japanese text)Related Company Extraction Test, Theme-based Extraction Test2018, 2019propose to learn vector representations of companies based on their annual reportsProceedings of the Second Workshop on Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing
Ito et al. (2019) (cannot download from UCD library)Segment Information Extraction From Financial Annual Reports Using Neural Network\\\\\2019 Annual Conference of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence

Text Visualization

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Ito et al. (2018)GINN: Gradient Interpretable Neural Networks for Visualizing Financial Texts1.Yahoo Finance Board, 2. Reuters financial news, 3. Stock codes from Tokyo Stock ExchangeGradient Interpretable Neural Network (GINN)Macro F1 score-/01/2007- -/12/2016the GINN can visualize important concepts given in various sentence contexts. Such visualization helps nonexperts easily understand financial documents.International Journal of Data Science and Analytics
Ito et al. (2019) (cannot download from UCD library)Concept Cloud-based Sentiment Visualization for Financial Reviews\\\\\2019 The International Conference on Decision Economics
Ito et al. (2019)Word-level Sentiment Visualizer for Financial Documents1.Current economy watchers survey, 2.Synthetic dataset, 3.Yahoo Dataset, 4.Manually created word polarity lists.LRP-RNN, Bidirectional LSTMMacro F1 score\Proposed Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) for word-level sentiment. Proposed two frameworks LWSV and GWSV for financial text-visualization.2019 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering (CIFEr)
Ito et al. (2018) (cannot download from UCD library)Text-visualizing Neural Network Model: Understanding Online Financial Textual Data\\\\\Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining

Other

ReferencePaperData SourceModelEvaluation Metric(s)Time PeriodContributionsVenue
Zamani et al. (2017)Using Twitter Language to Predict the Real Estate MarketCensus Bureau, Zillow, TwitterResidualised Control Regression\2011-2013Shows twitter data can be predictive of real estate. Residualised control approach to multi-modal features.EACL-2017