Geopol-Sim-Plugin

A thin orchestrator for running geopolitical-forecasting simulations from multiple decoupled upstream templates. The plugin doesn't ship simulator code itself — it scaffolds workspaces from the live upstream repos, dispatches runs by sentinel file, archives results, and grades past predictions for accuracy.

Templates

Two are registered out of the box, with very different cost / depth tradeoffs:

Template	Shape	Cost	Best for
Geopol-Forecast-Council	Lean 5-LLM panel, no actor sim	Cheap (a few model calls per run)	Short-horizon (24h / 1w / 1m) forecasts on fast-moving situations
Geopol-Forecaster	Snowglobe-style: ~40 actors over 4 timesteps + 6-lens council	Expensive (hundreds of calls per run)	Longer horizons, counterfactuals, when individual-actor dynamics matter

New templates can be added with a single entry in templates/registry.json — no skill rewrites required.

Skills

• scaffold-simulation — interactive template picker, clones chosen upstream into a new workspace, wires .env, drops a .template-id sentinel.
• run-simulation — sentinel-dispatched run + resume.
• update-actors — for snowglobe templates, edit persona briefs; for council templates, swap panel models.
• update-templates — git pull each registered template clone, report what changed.
• setup-runstore — one-time setup of a persistent runs archive (~/geopol-runs/ by default) so all runs across templates land in one queryable place.
• bundle-run — turn a completed run into a blog post, PDF, or both.
• grade-run — backward accuracy assessment with per-prediction grading and panel calibration stats. Seed of the self-improving loop.

Installation

claude plugins marketplace add danielrosehill/Claude-Code-Plugins
claude plugins install geopol-sim@danielrosehill

Pattern

Plugin-with-decoupled-templates: the plugin is a thin orchestrator over template repos that live independently. Push template improvements upstream without bumping the plugin; push plugin improvements without touching templates. See the pattern note for the full writeup.

License

MIT