electoral-cycle-methodology.md
May 1, 2026 · View on GitHub
🗳️ Electoral-Cycle Methodology
📊 Dual-Track Lens for the Election-Cycle Horizon — EP Term Retrospective + EPnext Forecast
🎯 Mandate-Fulfilment · Seat Projections · Coalition Viability · Spitzenkandidaten Arithmetic · National Spillover
📋 Document Owner: CEO | 📄 Version: 1.0 | 📅 Last Updated: 2026-05-01 (UTC) 🔄 Review Cycle: Quarterly | ⏰ Next Review: 2026-08-01 🏢 Owner: Hack23 AB (Org.nr 5595347807) | 🏷️ Classification: Public
🔄 Tradecraft Anchors
| Element | Value | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| F3EAD Stage | ANALYZE — electoral-cycle lens cross-cuts retrospective and prospective analysis | Domain extension of electoral-domain-methodology.md |
| PIRs Served | Mandate fulfilment, seat trajectories, coalition viability, Spitzenkandidaten arithmetic, national-election spillover | See political-style-guide.md §PIR/EEI |
| Admiralty Floor | EP results: A1; Eurobarometer: A2; National election results: A1; National polls: B2; Exit polls: C2 | See political-style-guide.md §Admiralty |
| WEP Requirement | Every seat-projection band tagged with WEP at 6/12/24/36-month horizons (see forward-projection-methodology.md §3) | See political-style-guide.md §WEP + ODNI |
| ICD 203 Gate | Standard 3 (judgements vs assumptions), 4 (alternative analysis — at least 2 contrasting electoral scenarios), 7 (explain change vs prior baseline) | See political-style-guide.md §ICD 203 |
| SAT(s) | Reference-Class Forecasting, Devil's Advocate, Outside-In Thinking, Indicators & Warnings, Pre-Mortem, Coalition Mathematics | See political-style-guide.md §SATs |
🎯 Purpose
Extend electoral-domain-methodology.md with a dual-track protocol that the election-cycle and term-outlook workflows apply during their analysis stage. Where Family D treats the electoral lens as an extended layer, this methodology promotes it to the primary lens of the article.
The protocol is dual-track:
- Track A — Term Retrospective (e.g. EP10 outturn): vote-share delta vs prior baseline, mandate-fulfilment scorecard, defection-flow map.
- Track B — Term Forecast (e.g. EP11): seat projections per group at 6/12/24/36-month horizons, coalition viability matrix, Spitzenkandidaten arithmetic, treaty-revision feasibility.
Both tracks are produced in a single run; there is no split-PR layout (election-cycle and term-outlook always emit one PR per horizon).
1. EP-Term Anchors (canonical constants)
| Term | Start | End (electoral) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| EP9 | 2 Jul 2019 | 1 Jul 2024 | Reference baseline for EP10 retrospective |
| EP10 | 16 Jul 2024 | ~end of Jun 2029 | Current term — primary scope of term-outlook and election-cycle until 2029 |
| EP11 | ~Jul 2029 | ~Jun 2034 | Forecast scope of post-2029 election-cycle runs |
The election week is the second Sunday of June in the election year (Council Decision (EU) 2018/767 set the June 2024 window; subsequent dates follow the same statutory rule). src/aggregator/article-metadata.ts derives these dates via deriveTermLabel() and deriveElectionCycleLabel().
2. Track A — Term Retrospective (mandate-fulfilment-scorecard.md)
2.1 Vote-share delta
For each major group, report:
| Group | EP-prior vote share | EP-current vote share | Δ (pts) | National-spillover note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPP | … | … | ±N | Top-3 driver national elections |
| S&D | … | … | ±N | … |
| Renew | … | … | ±N | … |
| Greens/EFA | … | … | ±N | … |
| ECR | … | … | ±N | … |
| ID / PfE | … | … | ±N | … |
| The Left | … | … | ±N | … |
| Non-attached | … | … | ±N | … |
Source vote-share data from the EP results portal (Admiralty A1).
2.2 Mandate-fulfilment scorecard
For each group's headline 2024-campaign pledges, trace pledge → adopted act:
| Pledge | Status | Acts cited | Throughput delay (months) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climate package strengthen | ✅ delivered / 🟡 partial / ❌ failed | … | … | A–F |
Aggregate to a single A–F group score and a parliamentary-balance score.
2.3 Defection-flow map
Mermaid flowchart LR showing inter-group MEP migration during the term, with edge thickness proportional to defection volume. Source: src/mcp/ep-mcp-client.ts:getMepDelta() cross-run history.
3. Track B — Term Forecast (seat-projection.md, term-arc.md)
3.1 Seat-projection bands
For each major group produce 6/12/24/36-month seat-band projections:
| Group | Current | T+6m | T+12m | T+24m | T+36m | T+EP-election (P50) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPP | 188 | 175–195 (Likely) | 170–198 (Likely) | 165–202 (About even) | 160–205 (About even) | 175 |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
Each band carries an explicit WEP label per forward-projection-methodology.md §3. Bands widen at longer horizons; the longest horizon defaults to "About even" unless reference-class evidence supports tighter bands.
3.2 Coalition viability matrix
Cross-tab of plausible majorities (≥ 361 seats in EP10, ≥ 1/2+1 of seats in EP11):
| Coalition | Seats | Viability | Stress points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand (EPP+S&D+Renew) | … | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | … |
| Centre-right (EPP+ECR) | … | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | … |
| Climate (S&D+Renew+Greens+Left) | … | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | … |
| Conservative-populist (ECR+PfE) | … | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | … |
3.3 Spitzenkandidaten arithmetic
For each plausible Spitzenkandidaten, document:
- Group vote share threshold to claim Commission Presidency
- National-election dependencies (top-3 driver elections)
- Cross-group endorsement viability (≥ 1/2 group endorsements required)
- Black-swan blockers (treaty challenge, qualified-majority shifts)
3.4 Treaty-revision feasibility
A short bullet block on whether the projected EP composition + Council majority crosses the threshold for an IGC convocation under Art. 48 TEU.
4. National-Election Spillover Model
For each upcoming national election within the horizon, document:
| Country | Date | Polling EP-group composition | Likely shift | EP-group impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | … | EPP=N, S&D=N, … | EPP +M, AfD/PfE +M | EPP gain via German list |
The model multiplies national projected vote share by the historic EP-list translation coefficient (per historical-baseline.md §National translation factors).
5. Auto-Trigger Thresholds
The news-election-cycle.md workflow auto-runs when any of the following holds (computed from src/mcp/ep-mcp-client.ts:getElectionCalendarContext()):
| Threshold | Trigger | Stage budget bump |
|---|---|---|
| T-180 | 180 days before election week | None — standard |
| T-90 | 90 days before election week | +2 minutes to Stage B |
| T-30 | 30 days before election week | Highest priority — runs daily |
Outside these windows the workflow runs only on the annual 0 8 1 12 * cron and on workflow_dispatch.
6. Cross-Links to Existing Methodology
- Voter-segmentation layer is reused verbatim from
electoral-domain-methodology.md§Voter Segmentation. - Coalition mathematics is computed by
coalition-mathematics.mdwith the term-progress index (months elapsed / months remaining) added in §3.2 of this methodology. - Historical parallels — every electoral-cycle run consumes
historical-parallels.mdreference-class entries for the EP-prior term and inter-presidency rotations.
7. Outputs
| Artifact | Track | Required by |
|---|---|---|
intelligence/term-arc.md | A + B | term-outlook, election-cycle, year-in-review |
intelligence/seat-projection.md | B | term-outlook, election-cycle, optionally year-in-review |
intelligence/mandate-fulfilment-scorecard.md | A | year-in-review, election-cycle |
intelligence/presidency-trio-context.md | both | every horizon ≥ quarter |
intelligence/commission-wp-alignment.md | both | every horizon ≥ quarter |
8. Quality Gates (Stage C, electoral overlay)
| Gate | Threshold | Pass-2 trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Vote-share delta table populated | All major groups present | Re-author from EP results portal |
| Mandate scorecard pledge → act | ≥ 5 pledges per group | Trace additional pledges to acts |
| Seat-projection bands at 4 horizons | All four populated with WEP | Re-derive from reference class |
| Coalition viability matrix | ≥ 4 coalitions classified | Add adjacent / wildcard coalitions |
| Spitzenkandidaten arithmetic | ≥ 2 candidates documented | Add devil's-advocate alternative |
| National spillover entries | ≥ 3 driver elections | Extend lookup window |
9. Cross-References
electoral-domain-methodology.md— base electoral lens (extended here for dual-track).forward-projection-methodology.md— horizon-conditional WEP, structural-break, reference-class protocol.strategic-extensions-methodology.md— long-horizon scenario appendix.historical-baseline.md— reference-class store.
📅 Document History
| Version | Date | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 2026-05-01 | Initial release — dual-track lens, EP-term anchors, seat-projection bands, coalition viability matrix, Spitzenkandidaten arithmetic, national-spillover model, T-180/T-90/T-30 auto-trigger thresholds. |