World Bank Indicator → Article Type Mapping (Riksdagsmonitor)

May 15, 2026 · View on GitHub

Scope — Riksdagsmonitor uses World Bank Open Data for non-economic context. Companion docs cover the rest of the data stack: imf-indicator-mapping.md for economic context (macro, fiscal, monetary, external sector, trade, commodity, FX, interest rates) and SCB tables for Swedish-specific ground truth.

Domains covered by this document:

Governance (WGI, source=75) — CC.EST, RL.EST, VA.EST, GE.EST, RQ.EST, PV.EST

Environment — EN.ATM.CO2E.PC, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS

Social / demographics — SP.POP.TOTL, SP.DYN.LE00.IN, SP.DYN.CBRT.IN, IT.NET.USER.ZS

Health (detail) — SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS, SH.MED.BEDS.ZS, SH.IMM.MEAS

Education — SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS, SE.PRM.ENRR, SE.TER.ENRR, SE.PRM.CMPT.ZS

Defence historicals — MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS, MS.MIL.TOTL.P1

Agriculture — AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS

Innovation — GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS, IP.PAT.RESD

Crime / justice — VC.IHR.PSRC.P5

Scope reference — scripts/world-bank-client.ts INDICATOR_IDS and analysis/worldbank/indicators-inventory.json v4.0 catalogue the WB indicators documented here. Economic context (macro, fiscal, monetary, external, trade, commodity, FX, interest rates) is sourced from IMF via scripts/imf-fetch.ts.

🎯 AI-FIRST Methodology Card

🚦 Read this card before writing a single paragraph. It names the artifact this methodology owns, the gate check it satisfies, the evidence-density target it must hit, and the Pass-1 / Pass-2 discipline required by .github/copilot-instructions.md §5 (AI-FIRST Quality Principle).

Field	Value
Purpose	World Bank indicator catalogue for non-economic context only — governance (WGI `source=75`), environment, social/demographics, health, education, defence historicals, agriculture, innovation, crime/justice.
Inputs	`scripts/world-bank-client.ts` `INDICATOR_IDS`; `analysis/worldbank/indicators-inventory.json` v4.0; world-bank MCP server
Outputs	`comparative-international.md` non-economic rows; `voter-segmentation.md`; `implementation-feasibility.md`; `session-baseline.md` non-economic rows
Owning artifact(s)	Every artifact making a non-economic comparator claim
Owning gate check	Provider-precedence enforcement: economic codes are FORBIDDEN here — cross-check against `imf-indicator-mapping.md` and `analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json (scope boundary)`
Citation density target	Every non-economic indicator row carries `provider=worldbank, indicator-code, retrieved_at`
Banned phrases	Enforced via `political-style-guide.md` §Machine-readable banned-phrase list
Threshold source	`reference-quality-thresholds.json` → `thresholds[articleType][artifact]` (fallback `defaults.coreArtifactFloor`)

✅ Pass-1 checklist (creation — minimal viable artifact)

Confirm every indicator used is on the documented non-economic list
Use IMF (not WB) for any macro / fiscal / monetary / external / trade / commodity / FX claim
Tag governance rows with source=75 (WGI)
Produce every required sub-section listed in the owning template
Add ≥ 1 evidence anchor (dok_id, vote id, named MP, or primary-source URL) per analytical claim
Apply the correct WEP confidence band for the run's horizon (72h / week / month / quarter / year / cycle)
Include ≥ 1 themed Mermaid diagram with style … or themeVariables config (where structurally meaningful)
Cross-link the relevant template under analysis/templates/ and the gate check it satisfies

🔁 Pass-2 checklist (read-back & improve — AI-FIRST mandatory)

Detect & remove any deprecated economic codes from analysis/worldbank/indicators-inventory.json (indicator list)
Reconcile WB freshness vs IMF/SCB: WB usually annual lag → flag if > 18 mo old
Re-read the file end-to-end; flag every claim that lacks an evidence anchor and add one
Replace every banned phrase listed in political-style-guide.md §Machine-readable banned-phrase list with an evidence-anchored alternative
Tighten WEP language: never above likely without ≥ 3 cycle-aged sources for year/cycle horizons
Strengthen Mermaid (color-coded style … directives, themeVariables, ≥ 5 nodes where the structure admits it)
Add ≥ 1 second-order effect, cui-bono note, or counterfactual where the artifact admits one
Verify citation density meets the per-file target below and the gate's evidence-density rules

🟢 Exemplar (good — pattern-match this)

(WB row) "WGI Control of Corruption (CC.EST, source=75): Sweden 2.13 (2024); Denmark 2.17; Norway 2.04; Finland 2.16. Source: api.worldbank.org, retrieved 2026-04-25 ([A1])."

🔴 Anti-exemplar (failure mode — never ship this)

(failure mode) "WB GDP per capita SWE 2024 = USD 56,302." — provider violation: GDP is IMF-canonical, not WB.

🔗 Cross-links

Template(s): analysis/templates/comparative-international.md, analysis/templates/session-baseline.md
Gate check: .github/prompts/05-analysis-gate.md
AI-FIRST canon: .github/copilot-instructions.md §5 · ai-driven-analysis-guide.md
Style canon: political-style-guide.md · osint-tradecraft-standards.md
Catalog row: artifact-catalog.md

Purpose — canonical reference that maps Riksdagsmonitor news workflow article types to the most-relevant non-economic World Bank Open Data indicators used in comparative-international.md, voter-segmentation.md, implementation-feasibility.md and the session-baseline.md domain tables.

Data access — via the world-bank MCP server (local container, worldbank-mcp@1.0.1) using get-social-data, get-health-data, get-education-data, and the raw-REST passthrough for environment / defence / agriculture / innovation / governance codes. See .github/copilot-mcp.json and .github/prompts/02-mcp-access.md.

Scope reference — INDICATOR_IDS in scripts/world-bank-client.ts and analysis/worldbank/indicators-inventory.json v4.0 catalogue the indicators documented here (governance, environment, social, demographics, health, education, defence historicals, innovation, infrastructure, inequality, gender, energy, agriculture, crime/justice). Companion routing for economic context lives in imf-indicator-mapping.md and .github/aw/ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT.md.

1. Retained WB Domains

Domain	Primary tool	Example indicator codes	Typical article types
Social / demographics	`get-social-data` + raw `SP.POP.*`	`SP.POP.TOTL`, `SP.DYN.LE00.IN`, `SP.DYN.CBRT.IN`, `SP.DYN.CDRT.IN`, `IT.NET.USER.ZS`	committee-reports (SoU), evening-analysis, month-ahead
Health	`get-health-data`	`SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS`, `SH.MED.PHYS.ZS`, `SH.MED.BEDS.ZS`, `SH.IMM.MEAS`, `SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS`, `SH.STA.MALN.ZS`, `SH.TBS.INCD`	committee-reports (SoU, Sjukvård), propositions
Education	`get-education-data`	`SE.ADT.LITR.ZS`, `SE.PRM.ENRR`, `SE.PRM.CMPT.ZS`, `SE.PRM.TCHR`, `SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS`	committee-reports (UbU), motions on skola
Environment	raw `EN.*`, `EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS`	`EN.ATM.CO2E.PC`, `EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS`, `AG.LND.FRST.ZS`, `ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS`	committee-reports (MjU, NU), evening-analysis
Defence	raw `MS.MIL.*`	`MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS`, `MS.MIL.TOTL.P1`	committee-reports (FöU), propositions on försvar
Agriculture	raw `AG.*`, `NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS`	`AG.PRD.CREL.MT`, `AG.LND.ARBL.ZS`, `NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS`	committee-reports (MJU), motions on landsbygd
Innovation	raw `GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS`, `IT.NET.USER.ZS`	`GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS`, `IT.NET.USER.ZS`, `IP.PAT.RESD`	committee-reports (UbU, NU), propositions on forskning
Governance	raw `SG.`, `IC.`	`SG.GEN.PARL.ZS`, `IC.BUS.EASE.XQ`, WGI via `governance.worldbank.org`	intelligence-assessment, methodology-reflection

2. Sweden Country Code & Regional Aggregates

Purpose	Code	Notes
Sweden	`SWE`	ISO-3
EU (World Bank aggregate)	`EUU`	accepted by `world-bank` MCP
Euro area	`EMU`	accepted by WB (Sweden is non-Euro)
Nordic baseline (manual)	`DNK`, `FIN`, `NOR`, `ISL`	fetched in parallel for comparative-international
OECD	`OED`	WB aggregate
High income	`HIC`	income-level aggregate

Note on IMF aggregates — use EU, EA, G7, G20 instead of EUU/EMU when calling IMF; the two MCPs use incompatible aggregate codes.

3. Article-Type → Domain Map

Article type	Required WB domains	Optional
`propositions`	— (economic → IMF)	health, education, environment per committee
`motions`	social, innovation	environment, defence
`committee-reports`	domain of the committee (UbU→education, MjU→environment, SoU→health, FöU→defence)	demographics
`interpellations`	—	social (when demographic framing present)
`evening-analysis`	social, health (if day's theme warrants)	governance
`realtime-monitor`	—	whatever the breaking topic demands
`week-ahead` / `month-ahead`	— (forward-looking)	social baseline
`weekly-review` / `monthly-review`	social, health, education, environment trend lines	innovation

4. Citation Pattern

Every WB figure cited in an artifact must appear as:

World Bank, "{indicator name}" ({indicator code}), Sweden, {year}, {URL or "WDI via world-bank MCP"}. Admiralty: B2.

Example:

World Bank, "Total health expenditure (% of GDP)" (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS),
Sweden, 2023, WDI via world-bank MCP. Admiralty: B2.

5. Anti-Patterns (gate failures)

Citing the raw indicator code without the human-readable name.
Quoting a single year without trend context (min. 5-year series).
Using SWE alongside a non-matching regional aggregate (e.g. mixing EUU with an IMF EU figure for the same chart).
Failing to flag indicators with known data quality issues (Sweden's SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS is aggregated to suppress small counts — annotate).

6. Changelog

v1.3 (2026-05-15) — Added changelog entry for consistency with companion methodology files.
v1.2 (2026-04-28) — Document scoped to non-economic indicators (governance, environment, social, defence historicals, demographics, health, education, innovation, infrastructure, inequality, gender, energy, agriculture, crime). Economic context routes through imf-indicator-mapping.md.
v1.1 (2026-04-24) — Scope tightened: full IMF integration across methodologies/templates/prompts.
v1.0 (2026-04-23) — Initial Riksdagsmonitor mapping; adapted from EU Parliament Monitor worldbank-indicator-mapping.md Wave-2 scope.

7. Detailed Indicator Reference — Retained Domains

7a. Governance (WGI, source=75)

Indicator	WB Code	Range	Sweden 2023	Global percentile	Publication lag	Use in Riksdagsmonitor
Control of Corruption	`CC.EST`	−2.5–+2.5	≈ +2.15	98th	12 months	`pestle-analysis.md §Political`, `risk-assessment.md §Institutional`
Rule of Law	`RL.EST`	−2.5–+2.5	≈ +1.95	97th	12 months	`pestle-analysis.md §Legal`
Voice and Accountability	`VA.EST`	−2.5–+2.5	≈ +1.65	90th	12 months	`risk-assessment.md §Democratic accountability`
Government Effectiveness	`GE.EST`	−2.5–+2.5	≈ +1.90	96th	12 months	`executive-brief.md §Context`
Regulatory Quality	`RQ.EST`	−2.5–+2.5	≈ +1.75	95th	12 months	`implementation-feasibility.md §Institutional capacity`
Political Stability / No Violence	`PV.EST`	−2.5–+2.5	≈ +0.85	78th	12 months	Note: NATO accession may improve future scores; hybrid threat context may depress

MCP query for governance:

# Source=75 is mandatory for WGI — otherwise WB API returns WDI economic codes
get-economic-data(countryCode="SWE", indicator="CC.EST", years=10)
# Nordic peer comparison (iterate):
for c in ["SWE", "DNK", "FIN", "NOR"]: get-economic-data(countryCode=c, indicator="CC.EST", years=5)

7b. Environmental (WDI)

Indicator	WB Code	Unit	Sweden ≈	WB data lag	Swedish myndighet (use first for Sweden)
CO₂ per capita	`EN.ATM.CO2E.PC`	tonne/capita	3.5 (2022)	18–24 mo	Naturvårdsverket (NVV)
CO₂ total (kt)	`EN.ATM.CO2E.KT`	kilotonnes	see NVV	18–24 mo	Naturvårdsverket
Renewable energy share	`EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS`	% total energy	≈ 60 % (2022)	12–18 mo	Energimyndigheten
Forest area	`AG.LND.FRST.ZS`	% land area	≈ 69 %	12 mo	Skogsstyrelsen
Freshwater withdrawals	`ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS`	% internal resources	< 1 %	24–36 mo	SGU / SMHI
PM2.5 exposure	`EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3`	µg/m³	≈ 8	12–18 mo	Naturvårdsverket

Limitation: WB environmental data sourced from national statistical offices with significant lag. For real-time Swedish policy analysis, cite Naturvårdsverket / Energimyndigheten / SMHI as primary and WB as international context layer only.

7c. Health & Nutrition (WDI)

Indicator	WB Code	MCP tool key	Unit	Sweden ≈	Swedish authority
Health expenditure % GDP	`SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS`	`HEALTH_EXPENDITURE`	%	10.9 % (2022)	Socialstyrelsen; SCB NR
Physicians per 1,000	`SH.MED.PHYS.ZS`	`PHYSICIANS`	per 1K	4.3 (2022)	Socialstyrelsen
Hospital beds per 1,000	`SH.MED.BEDS.ZS`	`HOSPITAL_BEDS`	per 1K	2.1 (2020)	Socialstyrelsen
Measles immunisation	`SH.IMM.MEAS`	`IMMUNIZATION`	% 1-year-olds	97 % (2022)	Folkhälsomyndigheten
HIV prevalence	`SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS`	`HIV_PREVALENCE`	% adults 15–49	≈ 0.1 %	Folkhälsomyndigheten
Undernourishment	`SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS`	`MALNUTRITION`	% population	< 2.5 %	SCB HEK survey
Tuberculosis incidence	`SH.TBS.INCD`	`TUBERCULOSIS`	per 100K	≈ 4.0 (2022)	Folkhälsomyndigheten

MCP query example:

get-health-data(countryCode="SWE", indicator="HEALTH_EXPENDITURE", years=10)

Limitation: WB health data aggregated from WHO and national sources; may differ from Socialstyrelsen micro-data by ±0.5–1.0 pp. Always cross-reference Socialstyrelsen for Swedish domestic policy analysis.

7d. Education (WDI)

Indicator	WB Code	MCP tool key	Unit	Sweden ≈	Swedish authority
Literacy rate (adult)	`SE.ADT.LITR.ZS`	`LITERACY_RATE`	%	≈ 99 %	SCB PIAAC
Primary enrollment	`SE.PRM.ENRR`	`SCHOOL_ENROLLMENT`	gross %	> 100 %	Skolverket
Primary completion	`SE.PRM.CMPT.ZS`	`SCHOOL_COMPLETION`	%	≈ 99 %	Skolverket
Primary teachers	`SE.PRM.TCHR`	`TEACHERS_PRIMARY`	count	≈ 85,000	Skolverket
Gov. education expenditure % GDP	`SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS`	`EDUCATION_EXPENDITURE`	%	≈ 6.8 %	SCB `OE0107`

8. Limitations Summary

Limitation type	Affected domains	Mitigation
Publication lag 18–24 months	Environmental, some health	Use Swedish myndigheter as primary; WB for international comparison
WGI country coverage gaps	Governance (some years)	Flag in `mcp-reliability-audit.md §7` if year missing
Small-count suppression	HIV, TB, undernourishment	Note in article: "WB suppresses counts below threshold; exact value below X"
WDI aggregation methodology differs from Eurostat / SCB	Social / health / education	When citing for EU comparison, note "WB WDI methodology; Eurostat may differ by ±X pp"
WGI annual frequency only	Governance	Do not interpolate between years; use "most recent available (YYYY)"

9. Cross-Reference Matrix

Riksdagsmonitor template	Relevant WB domain	Key codes	Also cite
`pestle-analysis.md §Social`	Social / demographics	`SP.POP.TOTL`, `SP.DYN.LE00.IN`	SCB `BE0101` (Sweden primary)
`pestle-analysis.md §Environmental`	Environmental	`EN.ATM.CO2E.PC`, `EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS`	NVV, Energimyndigheten (Sweden primary)
`pestle-analysis.md §Political`	Governance	`CC.EST`, `VA.EST`, `PV.EST`	Statskontoret, JO, KU betänkande
`risk-assessment.md §Institutional`	Governance	`RL.EST`, `GE.EST`	KU annual report
`comparative-international.md`	All domains	Full Nordic peer comparison	IMF for economic columns; WB for non-economic
`voter-segmentation.md §Demographic`	Social	`SP.POP.TOTL`, `IT.NET.USER.ZS`	SCB (Sweden primary)
`implementation-feasibility.md §Capacity`	Governance / innovation	`RQ.EST`, `GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS`	Vinnova for Swedish R&D