IMF Indicator → Article Type Mapping (Riksdagsmonitor)

May 16, 2026 · View on GitHub

Authoritative methodology — canonical reference mapping Riksdagsmonitor news workflow article types to the most-relevant IMF indicators sourced from WEO, Fiscal Monitor, IFS, BOP, GFS_COFOG, MFS_IR, DOTS, PCPS, and ER via the local TypeScript IMF client at scripts/imf-fetch.ts (Datamapper JSON base URL https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1, SDMX 3.0 base URL https://api.imf.org/external/sdmx/3.0).

Effective: 2026-05-15 · Version: 2.2 · Contract: .github/aw/ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT.md v3.0+

🎯 AI-FIRST Methodology Card

🚦 Read this card before writing a single paragraph. It names the artifact this methodology owns, the gate check it satisfies, the evidence-density target it must hit, and the Pass-1 / Pass-2 discipline required by .github/copilot-instructions.md §5 (AI-FIRST Quality Principle).

Field	Value
Purpose	Canonical mapping from Riksdagsmonitor article types → IMF dataflows (WEO, FM, IFS, BOP, GFS_COFOG, MFS_IR, DOTS, PCPS, ER) — IMF is PRIMARY for all economic context.
Inputs	`.github/aw/ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT.md` v3.0; `analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json`; `scripts/imf-fetch.ts`
Outputs	`session-baseline.md` IMF tables; economic citations across every artifact
Owning artifact(s)	Every artifact making an economic claim
Owning gate check	Economic-data contract enforcement (provider precedence, vintage discipline, banned-phrase block on WB economic codes)
Citation density target	Every economic claim carries `economicProvenance` (provider=imf
Banned phrases	Enforced via `political-style-guide.md` §Machine-readable banned-phrase list
Threshold source	`reference-quality-thresholds.json` → `thresholds[articleType][artifact]` (fallback `defaults.coreArtifactFloor`)

✅ Pass-1 checklist (creation — minimal viable artifact)

Use IMF first for macro/fiscal/monetary/external/trade/commodity/FX
Vintage discipline: > 6 mo → annotate; current vintage tag WEO-2026-04
Cross-validate IMF SWE vs SCB; > 0.3 pp delta → editorial review
Produce every required sub-section listed in the owning template
Add ≥ 1 evidence anchor (dok_id, vote id, named MP, or primary-source URL) per analytical claim
Apply the correct WEP confidence band for the run's horizon (72h / week / month / quarter / year / cycle)
Include ≥ 1 themed Mermaid diagram with style … or themeVariables config (where structurally meaningful)
Cross-link the relevant template under analysis/templates/ and the gate check it satisfies

🔁 Pass-2 checklist (read-back & improve — AI-FIRST mandatory)

Confirm provider precedence: IMF > SCB > WB (non-economic only)
Reject any economic claim citing World Bank for macro / fiscal / monetary / external / trade / commodity / FX
Re-read the file end-to-end; flag every claim that lacks an evidence anchor and add one
Replace every banned phrase listed in political-style-guide.md §Machine-readable banned-phrase list with an evidence-anchored alternative
Tighten WEP language: never above likely without ≥ 3 cycle-aged sources for year/cycle horizons
Strengthen Mermaid (color-coded style … directives, themeVariables, ≥ 5 nodes where the structure admits it)
Add ≥ 1 second-order effect, cui-bono note, or counterfactual where the artifact admits one
Verify citation density meets the per-file target below and the gate's evidence-density rules

🟢 Exemplar (good — pattern-match this)

(economic citation) "IMF projects Sweden general-government net lending −0.3 pp vs baseline by 2030 (WEO Apr-2026, GGXCNL_NGDP/SWE, retrieved 2026-04-25 from www.imf.org)."

🔴 Anti-exemplar (failure mode — never ship this)

(failure mode) "Sweden's GDP growth is expected to be modest." — no provider, no dataflow, no indicator, no vintage. OR citing World Bank for GDP — provider violation.

🔗 Cross-links

Template(s): analysis/templates/session-baseline.md (IMF tables), analysis/templates/comparative-international.md
Gate check: .github/prompts/05-analysis-gate.md
AI-FIRST canon: .github/copilot-instructions.md §5 · ai-driven-analysis-guide.md
Style canon: political-style-guide.md · osint-tradecraft-standards.md
Catalog row: artifact-catalog.md

0 · TL;DR

IMF is PRIMARY for all economic context — macro, fiscal, monetary, external sector, bilateral trade, government-by-function spending, commodity benchmarks, exchange rates.
World Bank is PRIMARY for non-economic residue only — governance (WGI source=75), environment, social / education participation, defence historicals, crime / rule of law.
SCB remains primary for Swedish-specific ground truth — monthly KPIF, AKU labour, regional / municipal, budget execution.
No IMF MCP server — access via tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts … from the bash tool. Firewall egress: data.imf.org, api.imf.org, www.imf.org.
Projections MUST carry a vintage tag — (WEO Apr-2026, GGXWDG_NGDP). Current vintage: WEO-2026-04.
Companions: analysis/imf/README.md · analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json · analysis/imf/data-dictionary.md · analysis/imf/agentic-integration.md · analysis/imf/indicator-policy-mapping.md · analysis/imf/use-cases.md.

Claim class	Primary	Secondary	Forbidden (NEVER use, in any role)
Real GDP growth	`WEO:NGDP_RPCH` [proj T+5]	SCB QNA	`WB:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG`
Nominal GDP (USD)	`WEO:NGDPD` [proj]	—	`WB:NY.GDP.MKTP.CD`
GDP per capita	`WEO:NGDPDPC` / `WEO:PPPPC` [proj]	—	`WB:NY.GDP.PCAP.CD`
Annual inflation	`WEO:PCPIPCH` / `WEO:PCPIEPCH` [proj]	—	`WB:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG`
Monthly inflation (high-freq)	`IFS:PCPI_IX`	SCB KPIF	—
Unemployment (annual)	`WEO:LUR` [proj]	SCB AKU	`WB:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS`
Gross public debt	`WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP` [proj]	`FM:GGXWDG_NGDP`	`WB:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS`
Fiscal balance	`WEO:GGXCNL_NGDP` [proj]	`FM:GGXCNLB_NGDP`	—
Primary balance	`FM:GGXONLB_NGDP` [proj]	—	—
Cyclically-adjusted balance	`FM:GGSB_NPGDP` [proj]	—	—
Revenue / GDP	`WEO:GGR_NGDP` [proj]	—	`WB:GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS`
Expenditure / GDP	`WEO:GGX_NGDP` [proj]	—	`WB:GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS`
Current account	`WEO:BCA_NGDPD` [proj]	BOP detail	`WB:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS`
Exports volume growth	`WEO:TX_RPCH` [proj]	—	`WB:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS`
Imports volume growth	`WEO:TM_RPCH` [proj]	—	—
Bilateral trade flows	`DOTS:TXG_FOB_USD`, `DOTS:TMG_CIF_USD`	—	—
Policy rate (Riksbank)	`MFS_IR:FPOLM_PA`	Riksbank press releases	—
Exchange rate	`ER:ENDA_XDC_USD_RATE`, `ER:ENDE_XDC_EUR_RATE`	Riksbank	—
Commodity prices (oil, all-commodities)	`PCPS:POILAPSP`, `PCPS:PALLFNF`	—	—
COFOG defence spending (function 02)	`GFS_COFOG:GF02_T`	WB `MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS`	—
COFOG health spending (function 07)	`GFS_COFOG:GF07_T`	WB `SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS`	—
COFOG education spending (function 09)	`GFS_COFOG:GF09_T`	WB `SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS`	—
COFOG social protection (function 10)	`GFS_COFOG:GF10_T`	—	—
Population (projection)	`WEO:LP` [proj]	SCB	`WB:SP.POP.TOTL`
Governance (rule of law, control of corruption, voice & accountability)	WB WGI `source=75`	—	IMF has no equivalent
Environment (CO₂, renewables, forest)	WB `EN.`, `EG.`, `AG.LND.FRST.ZS`	—	IMF has no equivalent
Education participation	WB `SE.PRM.ENRR`, `SE.TER.ENRR`	—	—
Crime / homicide	WB `VC.IHR.PSRC.P5`	—	—

2 · IMF dataflow catalogue (complete)

See analysis/imf/data-dictionary.md for the full reference. Summary:

Dataflow	Transport	Scope	Frequency	Projections
`WEO`	Datamapper + SDMX	Macro + fiscal + external	Annual	T+5
`FM`	Datamapper + SDMX	Deep fiscal (DSA, primary, cyclically-adjusted)	Annual	T+5
`IFS`	SDMX	Monetary + high-frequency CPI / rates	Monthly	—
`BOP / BOP_AGG`	SDMX	External sector detail (BPM6)	Quarterly	—
`GFS_COFOG`	SDMX	Government expenditure by function	Annual (T+1)	—
`MFS_IR`	SDMX	Interest rates (policy, deposit, lending)	Monthly	—
`DOTS`	SDMX	Bilateral trade flows	Monthly	—
`PCPS`	SDMX	Primary commodity prices	Monthly	—
`ER`	SDMX	Exchange rates (nominal, REER)	Daily / Monthly	—

3 · Country / aggregate codes

Purpose	IMF code	Transport	Notes
Sweden	`SWE` (Datamapper, WEO SDMX) / `144` (GFS/BOP SDMX) / `SE` (IFS SDMX some sub-dataflows)	ISO-3 / IMF AREA / ISO-2	Use `scripts/imf-codes.ts → toImfAreaCode()`
Nordic peers	`DNK`, `NOR`, `FIN`, `ISL`	same	Standard peer set
Germany (EU benchmark)	`DEU` / `134`	same
EU aggregate	`EU` (WEO)	Datamapper/SDMX	≠ WB `EUU`
Euro Area	`EURO` (Datamapper) / `EA` (SDMX)	Datamapper/SDMX	≠ WB `EMU`
G7 / G20 / AE	`G7`, `G20`, `AE`	WEO
World	`WORLD` (Datamapper) / `W0` (SDMX)

Mixing rule: Never combine WB:EUU and IMF:EU aggregates on the same chart — they have different methodologies and country sets. Use one provider per chart.

4 · Article type → indicator matrix

Article type	Required IMF	Optional overlay	WB role
`propositions` (budget / finance)	`WEO:NGDP_RPCH`, `WEO:PCPIPCH`, `WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP`, `WEO:GGXCNL_NGDP`	`FM:GGXONLB_NGDP`, `IFS:PCPI_IX`, `ER:ENDE_XDC_EUR_RATE`	WGI if governance angle, WB sectorals for implementation
`propositions` (tax / SkU)	`WEO:GGR_NGDP`, `FM:GGXONLB_NGDP`, `FM:GGSB_NPGDP`	`WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP`	—
`propositions` (trade / NU / UU)	`WEO:BCA_NGDPD`, `WEO:TX_RPCH`, `DOTS:TXG_FOB_USD`	`PCPS:POILAPSP`	—
`motions` (economy)	1 of `WEO:NGDP_RPCH` / `WEO:PCPIPCH` / `WEO:LUR`	—	Sectoral WB for policy feasibility
`committee-reports` (FiU)	Full macro+fiscal bundle	`IFS:PCPI_IX`, `MFS_IR:FPOLM_PA`	—
`committee-reports` (NU)	`WEO:BCA_NGDPD`, `WEO:TX_RPCH`	`DOTS` bilateral	—
`committee-reports` (SkU)	`WEO:GGR_NGDP`, `FM:GGXONLB_NGDP`	—	—
`committee-reports` (AU)	`WEO:LUR`, `WEO:LE`	SCB AKU	—
`committee-reports` (SoU)	`GFS_COFOG:GF07_T`, `WEO:LP`	—	`SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS`, `SH.MED.PHYS.ZS`
`committee-reports` (SfU)	`GFS_COFOG:GF10_T`, `WEO:LP`, `WEO:LUR`	—	—
`committee-reports` (FöU)	`GFS_COFOG:GF02_T`	—	`MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS` (historical)
`committee-reports` (MJU)	`PCPS:POILAPSP` (if energy)	—	`EN.ATM.CO2E.PC`, `EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS`, `AG.LND.FRST.ZS` primary
`committee-reports` (UbU)	`GFS_COFOG:GF09_T`	—	`SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS`, `SE.PRM.ENRR`
`committee-reports` (KU)	—	—	WB WGI primary (`source=75`)
`interpellations` (macro)	`WEO:PCPIPCH`, `WEO:LUR`	`IFS:PCPI_IX`, `MFS_IR:FPOLM_PA`	—
`evening-analysis`	WEO delta since previous publication	`MFS_IR:FPOLM_PA`, `ER:*` if rate-decision day	—
`realtime-monitor`	1 WEO indicator for context	`MFS_IR:FPOLM_PA`, `ER:*` if Riksbank / ECB news	—
`week-ahead`	Forecast table — `NGDP_RPCH`, `PCPIPCH`, `GGXWDG_NGDP`	Riksbank calendar	—
`month-ahead`	Full `WEO` + `FM` projection bundle	—	Sectoral WB for non-economic agenda
`weekly-review`	Period-over-period WEO + FM	`IFS:PCPI_IX`, `MFS_IR:FPOLM_PA`, `ER:*`	—
`monthly-review`	Full Nordic compare for `NGDP_RPCH`, `PCPIPCH`, `LUR`, `GGXWDG_NGDP`, `GGXCNL_NGDP`, `BCA_NGDPD`	`DOTS` bilateral, `PCPS` commodity	WB WGI snapshot, environment overlay
`article-generator` (any)	Per dominant committee above	—	Per committee above
`translate`	— (no new research)	—	—

5 · Citation canon

Every IMF figure cited in an artifact MUST conform to one of these patterns.

Projection (WEO/FM) — vintage tag MANDATORY

"IMF projects Sweden's general government gross debt at **32.4 %** of GDP in
**2027** (`WEO Apr-2026, GGXWDG_NGDP`)."

Historical — vintage recommended for extrema

"Sweden's debt/GDP peaked at **38 %** in 2022 (`WEO:GGXWDG_NGDP`)."

High-frequency — frequency tag

"Sweden's HICP reached **109.4** (2010=100) in March 2026 (`IFS:PCPI_IX`, monthly)."

Bilateral trade — partner + frequency

"Swedish goods exports to Russia collapsed **92 %** between Q4-2021 and Q4-2023
(`DOTS:TXG_FOB_USD`, monthly)."

Admiralty grade

Every citation in source-log.md / evidence-register.md must include an Admiralty code:

IMF WEO / FM (flagship): A1
IMF IFS, MFS_IR, DOTS, PCPS, ER: A1 (authoritative primary)
IMF WEO LUR when adjacent to SCB AKU: A2 (minor methodology divergence)

6 · Vintage handling

6.1 Current vintage

WEO-2026-04 (April 2026 flagship) — valid until the October 2026 flagship ships.

6.2 Cut-over discipline

When a new flagship is published (April / October):

Update DEFAULT_WEO_VINTAGE in scripts/imf-client.ts.
Update vintageDiscipline.current in analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json.
Update banner in analysis/imf/README.md.
Add row to release calendar in analysis/imf/data-dictionary.md § 4.

Ship all four in one PR titled chore(imf): cut over to WEO-YYYY-MM vintage.

6.3 Cross-run vintage drift

When a new run lands after a WEO cut-over:

Compare previous-run vintage vs current vintage in cross-run-diff.md.
Flag any headline indicator whose projection shifted by > 0.5 pp with a [VINTAGE-DELTA] annotation.
Update the commentary to the new vintage; do not leave the article quoting the old vintage silently.

6.4 Stale-vintage warning

A projection citation whose vintage tag is > 6 months old relative to article date triggers a warning annotation in methodology-reflection.md:

⚠️ Stale vintage — commentary cites (WEO Oct-2025, GGXWDG_NGDP) but current vintage is WEO-2026-04. Re-fetch and re-cite before publish.

7 · Economic Data Contract integration

All Chart.js specifications for charts fed by IMF data live in .github/aw/ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT.md v3.0+. Key points:

economic-data.json is the single source of truth the static site consumes.
source.imf[] MUST be non-empty for any article with an economic-context section.
Footer attribution reads Data by IMF / SCB for IMF-primary articles, or Data by IMF / World Bank / SCB when WB governance/environment data is also cited.
Every dataPoints[].projection=true entry MUST carry projectionVintage.

8 · Anti-patterns (gate failures, hard-stop)

Anti-pattern	Why it fails	Fix
Quoting `WB:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG` as primary macro citation	IMF WEO is authoritative + fresher + has projections	Replace with `WEO:NGDP_RPCH`
Projection citation without vintage tag	Audit cannot detect stale values	Add `(WEO Apr-2026, CODE)`
Forecast phrasing without citation ("Sweden will grow at 2 %")	Banned in ECONOMIC_DATA_CONTRACT § 6	Rewrite as "IMF projects Sweden's real GDP growth at 2.3 % in 2027 (`WEO Apr-2026, NGDP_RPCH`)"
Mixing `WB:EUU` and `IMF:EU` on the same chart	Different methodologies / country sets	Use one provider per chart
Parallel `weo --country X` × N calls	Breaches rate limit	Use `compare --countries SWE,DNK,NOR,FIN,DEU`
Running IMF as an MCP server	Architecture violation — IMF is CLI-via-`bash`	Remove from MCP config, use `tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts …`
Forecast series beyond T+5	Out of WEO horizon	Cap at 5 years ahead of latest flagship
Missing Admiralty grade in `evidence-register.md`	Fails gate Check 4 (`05-analysis-gate.md`)	Add `[A1]` or `[A2]`
Combining WEO annual with IFS monthly on same time axis without annotation	Chart misleads — different frequencies	Add resampling annotation in chart caption

The evidence-host regex in .github/prompts/05-analysis-gate.md Check 4 accepts api.imf.org, data.imf.org, www.imf.org as primary-source URL hosts. IMF citations alone are sufficient to pass the gate. (The gate does not yet block WB economic codes in new articles — this is advisory methodology until a follow-up automated lint is added.)

10 · Machine-readable sources

analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json — full indicator catalogue, committee matrix, non-economic scope policy, vintage discipline.
analysis/economic-indicators-inventory.json v4.1 — multi-provider pointer.
scripts/imf-context.ts — programmatic lookups (findImfIndicatorsForCommittee, findImfIndicatorsForDomains, imfCitation).

11 · Changelog

v2.2 (2026-05-15) — Version alignment pass: date updated to 2026-05-15; changelog entry added.
v2.0 (2026-04-24) — Full rewrite. IMF set as the source for every economic claim across all domains. Added complete dataflow catalogue (9 dataflows), deep committee matrix (including KrU/TU/CU/JuU), vintage-discipline canon, enforcement & anti-patterns. Cross-references every companion doc in analysis/imf/.
v1.0 (2026-04-23) — Initial Wave-2 IMF↔WB split; adapted from EU Parliament Monitor.